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Chicago Fed National Activity Growth increased in March
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The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, edged down to +0.11 in March from +0.15 in February. Forty-eight of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in March, while 37 made negative contributions. Thirty-seven indicators improved from February to March, while 47 indicators deteriorated and one was unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, ten made negative contributions.
Employment-related indicators contributed +0.02 to the CFNAI in March, down from +0.20 in February. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 98,000 in March after rising by 219,000 in February. In contrast, the civilian unemployment rate declined to 4.5 percent in March from 4.7 percent in February.
The contribution from production-related indicators to the CFNAI was unchanged at +0.04 in March. Total industrial production rose 0.5 percent in March after edging up 0.1 percent in February, but manufacturing production declined 0.4 percent in March after increasing 0.3 percent in the previous month.
The sales, orders, and inventories category also made a positive contribution to the CFNAI in March, though this contribution ticked down to +0.07 from +0.09 in February. The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ New Orders Index edged down to 64.5 in March from 65.1 in February.
The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI ticked up to –0.05 in March from –0.06 in February. Housing permits increased to 1,260,000 annualized units in March from 1,216,000 in February, while housing starts decreased to 1,215,000 annualized units in March from 1,303,000 in the previous month.
The CFNAI was constructed using data available as of April 20, 2017. At that time, March data for 51 of the 85 indicators had been published. For all missing data, estimates were used in constructing the index. The February monthly index value was revised to +0.27 from an initial estimate of +0.34, and the January monthly index value was revised to –0.25 from last month’s estimate of –0.02. Revisions to the monthly index value can be attributed to two main factors: revisions in previously published data and differences between the estimates of previously unavailable data and subsequently published data. The revisions to both the February and January monthly index values were primarily due to the former.
Posted: April 24, 2017 Monday 08:30 AM