The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, inched up by 0.2 points to 43.8 in March. Despite increasing for the first time since December 2022, the headline index signaled a seventh consecutive month of contractionary business activity in March.

New Orders and Supplier Deliveries declined in March, the latter recording the steepest fall since February 2022. All other sub-indexes increased in March. Barring Inventories and Prices Paid, all sub-indexes were in contractive territory. ...

Consumer sentiment fell for the first time in four months in the wake of a 13% decline in consumers’ outlook over the economy for the year ahead, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

Declines in sentiment were visible across age, education and income. Due to continued pressure from high prices, consumer sentiment experienced downward momentum prior to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the financial turbulence that ensued. Still, consumer attitudes ...

Personal income increased $72.9 billion (0.3 percent) in February, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $89.9 billion (0.5 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $27.9 billion ...

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022 (table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.2 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.7 percent. The revision primarily reflected downward revisions to exports and ...

In the week ending March 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 198,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 191,000. The 4-week moving average was 198,250, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's unrevised average ...

Pending home sales grew in February for the third consecutive month, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Three U.S. regions posted monthly gains, while the West declined. All four regions saw year-over-year decreases in transactions.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* — a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings — improved 0.8% to 83.2 in February. Year-over-year, pending transactions dropped by 21.1%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. ...

Mortgage applications increased 2.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 24, 2023.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 5 ...

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased slightly in March to 104.2 (1985=100), up from 103.4 in February. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—decreased to 151.1 (1985=100) from 153.0 last month. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook ...

Fifth District manufacturing firms reported modest improvements in business conditions in March, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index rose from -16 in February to -5 in March. Of its three component indexes, shipments saw the largest change, rising notably from -15 ...

S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for January 2023 show that the trend of declining home price gains continued across the United States with declining prices reported in the San Francisco, San Diego, ...

Modest growth resumes in Texas manufacturing, but outlooks continue to worsen. Texas factory activity expanded slightly in March after contracting in February, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, moved up from -2.8 to 2.5, ...

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in February, down three of the last four months, decreased $2.6 billion or 1.0 percent to $268.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 5.0 percent January decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders were virtually unchanged. Excluding defense, new orders ...

Tenth District manufacturing activity remained essentially flat for the third month in a row, and expectations for future activity increased slightly. Monthly price indexes were mixed with an increase in materials prices but a slight decrease in finished goods prices. Expectations for future raw materials and finished goods prices remained ...

New Home Sales
Sales of new single‐family houses in February 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 640,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 1.1 percent (±15.3 percent)* above the revised January rate of 633,000, but is 19.0 ...

The U.S. current-account deficit, which reflects the combined balances on trade in goods and services and income flows between U.S. residents and residents of other countries, narrowed by $12.2 billion, or 5.6 percent, to $206.8 billion in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to statistics released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic ...

Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to –0.19 in February from +0.23 in January. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in February, and three categories deteriorated from January. The index’s three-month moving ...

In the week ending March 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 191,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 192,000. The 4-week moving average was 196,250, a decrease of 250 from the previous week's unrevised average ...

Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have picked up in recent months and are running at a robust pace; the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated.

The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Recent developments are likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses and to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects is uncertain. The Committee remains ...

Mortgage applications increased 3.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 17, 2023.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 3.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 5 ...

Existing-home sales reversed a 12-month slide in February, registering the largest monthly percentage increase since July 2020, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Month-over-month sales rose in all four major U.S. regions. All regions posted ...

Nonmanufacturing activity in the region weakened this month, according to the firms responding to the March Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The index for general activity fell to a near-zero reading, and the index for new orders at the firm level turned negative. The sales/revenues index also decreased but remained positive, and ...

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for the U.S. fell by 0.3 percent in February 2023 to 110.0 (2016=100), after also declining by 0.3 percent in January. The LEI is down 3.6 percent over the six-month period between August 2022 and February 2023—a steeper rate of decline than its 3.0 percent contraction over the previous six ...

Consumer sentiment fell for the first time in four months, sitting about 5% below February but remaining 7% above a year ago. This month’s decrease was already fully realized prior to the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, at which time about 85% of our interviews for this preliminary release had been completed. Sentiment declines were ...

Industrial production was unchanged in February, and manufacturing output edged up 0.1 percent. The index for mining fell 0.6 percent, while the index for utilities rose 0.5 percent. At 102.6 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in February was 0.2 percent below its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization was unchanged ...

Prices for U.S. imports edged down 0.1 percent in February, after declining 0.4 percent in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Lower fuel prices in February more than offset higher nonfuel prices. U.S. export prices increased 0.2 percent in February following a 0.5-percent advance the ...

Building Permits
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,524,000. This is 13.8 percent above the revised January rate of 1,339,000, but is 17.9 percent below the February 2022 rate of 1,857,000. Single‐family authorizations in February were at a rate of 777,000; ...

Manufacturing activity in the region continued to decline overall, according to the firms responding to March's Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's broad indicators for current activity were all negative. On balance, the firms also reported a decline in employment. Most future indicators weakened, suggesting that the firms ...

In the week ending March 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 192,000, a decrease of 20,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 211,000 to 212,000. The 4-week moving average was 196,500, a decrease of 750 from the previous week's revised average. The ...

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for January 2023. The sum total in January of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC inflow of $183.1 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $171.2 billion, and ...

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for January, adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,847.5 billion, up 1.5 percent (±0.3 percent) from December 2022 and was up 5.0 percent (±0.4 percent) from ...

The Conference Board−Lightcast Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Index rose in February to 167.9 (July 2018=100), up from 165.1 in January. The 1.7 percent increase between January and February follows a 3.6 percent decrease between December and January. Overall, the Index is down 5.1 percent from one ...

Although high construction costs and elevated interest rates continue to hamper housing affordability, builders expressed cautious optimism in March as a lack of existing inventory is shifting demand to the new home market.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes in March rose two points to 44, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. This is the third straight monthly increase in builder ...

The Producer Price Index for Final Demand decreased 0.1 percent in February, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices advanced 0.3 percent in January and declined 0.2 percent in December 2022. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index rose 4.6 percent for the 12 months ...

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for February 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $697.9 billion, down 0.4 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, but up 5.4 percent (±0.7 percent) above February 2022. Total sales for the December ...

Business activity continued to decline in New York State, according to firms responding to the March 2023 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell nineteen points to -24.6. New orders dropped significantly, and shipments declined modestly. Delivery times shortened for a second consecutive ...

Mortgage applications increased 6.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 10, 2023.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 6.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 7 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 5 ...

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in February on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.5 percent in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 6.0 percent before ...

All employees
Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.1 percent from January to February, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.2 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.4 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All ...

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased 0.6 points in February to 90.9 but remains below the 49-year average of 98. Twenty-eight percent of owners reported inflation as their single most important business problem, up two points from last month. Owners expecting better business conditions over the next six months deteriorated two ...

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) rose in February to 118.29 from a downwardly revised 118.14 in January 2023. The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for employment. When the index increases, employment is likely to grow as well, and vice versa. Turning points in the index indicate that a turning point in ...

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 311,000 in February, and the unemployment rate edged up to 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, retail trade, government, and health care. Employment declined in information and in transportation ...

In the week ending March 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 211,000, an increase of 21,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 190,000. The 4-week moving average was 197,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's unrevised average ...

In the shortest month of the year, U.S.-based employers announced 77,770 job cuts in February, down a 24% from the 102,943 cuts announced in January. It is 410% higher than the 15,245 cuts announced in the same month last year, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm ...

Overall Economic Activity
Overall economic activity increased slightly in early 2023. Six Districts reported little or no change in economic activity since the last report, while six indicated economic activity expanded at a modest pace. On balance, supply chain disruptions continued to ease. Consumer spending generally held steady, though a ...

The number of job openings decreased to 10.8 million on the last business day of January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, the number of hires and total separations changed little at 6.4 million and 5.9 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.9 million) decreased, while layoffs and discharges ...

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $68.3 billion in January, up $1.1 billion from $67.2 billion in December, revised.

January exports were $257.5 billion, $8.5 billion more than December exports. January imports were $325.8 billion, $9.6 billion more than December imports. ...

Private sector employment increased by 242,000 jobs in February and annual pay was up 7.2 percent year-over-year, according to the February ADP® National Employment ReportTM produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab ...

Mortgage applications increased 7.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 3, 2023.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 7.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 9 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 9 ...

In January, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.7 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 11.1 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 1.2 percent.

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January 2023 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences but not for price changes, were $693.8 billion, up 1.0 percent (±0.7 percent) from the revised December level and were up 3.6 percent (±0.9 percent) from the revised January 2022 ...