Tenth District manufacturing activity declined slightly in February, and expectations for future activity moderated but remained slightly positive. Price growth for raw materials slowed somewhat this month and finished product prices also eased, although future increases are expected. On a year-over-year basis, both price indexes increased ...

Pending home sales in January dropped 4.9%, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Northeast and West posted monthly gains in transactions while the Midwest and South recorded losses. All four U.S. regions registered year-over-year decreases.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – decreased to 74.3 in January. Year over year, pending transactions were down 8.8%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. ...

The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI softened -2.0 points to 44.0 in February. This is the third consecutive monthly decline, pushing the index deeper into contractionary territory, and marking the lowest print since July 2023. We also note that this print is -1.4 points below the 2023 average. PRODUCTION FALLS TO ITS LOWEST ...

Personal income increased $233.7 billion (1.0 percent at a monthly rate) in January, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 2 and 3). Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $67.6 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) ...

In the week ending February 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 215,000, an increase of
13,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 201,000 to
202,000. The 4-week moving average was 212,500, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's revised ...

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 4.9 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.3 percent. The update primarily reflected a downward revision to private inventory ...

Mortgage applications decreased 5.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 23, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 5.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one ...

Fifth District manufacturing activity was flat in February, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index increased from −15 in January to −5 in February. Of its three component indexes, shipments remained solidly negative at −15, new orders increased from −16 to −5, and ...

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® fell in February to 106.7 (1985=100), down from a revised 110.9 in January. February’s decline in the Index occurred after three consecutive months of gains. However, as January was revised downward from the preliminary reading of 114.8, the data now suggest that there was not a material breakout ...

S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for December 2023 show that 17 out of the 20 major metro markets reported month- over-month price ...

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in January, down three of the last four months, decreased $18.0 billion or 6.1 percent to $276.7 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 0.3 percent December decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.3 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased ...

New Home Sales
Sales of new single‐family houses in January 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 661,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 1.5 percent (±19.9 percent)* above the revised December rate of 651,000 and is 1.8 percent ...

Texas factory activity stabilized in February after contracting in January, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rebounded 16 points to 1.0. The near-zero reading suggests flat output month ...

Existing-home sales grew in January, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Among the four major U.S. regions, sales accelerated in the Midwest, South and West, and remained steady in the Northeast. Year-over-year, sales improved in the West, and decreased in the Northeast, Midwest ...

In the week ending February 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 201,000, a decrease of
12,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 212,000 to
213,000. The 4-week moving average was 215,250, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week's revised ...

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.30 in January from +0.02 in December. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from December, and three categories made negative contributions in January. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to –0.02 in ...

Firms responding to the February Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey indicated mostly steady business activity. The index for general activity at the firm level declined to a near-zero reading. The index for sales/revenues was little changed, while the index for new orders turned negative. On balance, the firms continued to report an ...

Mortgage applications decreased 10.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 16, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 10.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one ...

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. fell by 0.4 percent in January 2024 to 102.7 (2016=100), following a 0.2 percent decline in December 2023. The LEI contracted by 3.0 percent over the six-month period between July 2023 and January 2024, a smaller decrease than the 4.1 percent decline over the previous ...

Consumer sentiment was essentially unchanged from January, rising 0.6 index points this month and solidifying the large gains from the past two months. The fact that sentiment lost no ground this month suggests that consumers continue to feel more assured about the economy, confirming the considerable improvements in December and January ...

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.3 percent in January, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices declined 0.1 percent in December 2023 and advanced 0.1 percent in November. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 0.9 percent for the 12 ...

Building Permits
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,470,000. This is 1.5 percent below the revised December rate of 1,493,000, but is 8.6 percent above the January 2023 rate of 1,354,000. Single‐family authorizations in January were at a rate of 1,015,000; this ...

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for December 2023. The sum total in December of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC inflow of $139.8 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $94.1 billion, and ...

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for December, adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,863.6 billion, up 0.4 percent (±0.2 percent) from November 2023 and was up 2.2 percent (±0.3 percent) from ...

Expectations that mortgage rates will continue to moderate in the coming months, the prospect of future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year, and a protracted lack of existing inventory helped provide a boost to builder sentiment for the third straight month.
Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes ...

Prices for U.S. imports advanced 0.8 percent in January following a 0.7-percent decline the previous month,
the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Higher prices for both nonfuel and fuel imports
contributed to the overall increase. U.S. export prices also advanced 0.8 percent in January, after decreasing
0.7 percent ...

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $700.3 billion, down 0.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 0.6 percent (±0.7 percent)* above January 2023. Total sales for the November 2023 ...

Business activity edged slightly lower in New York State, according to firms responding to the February 2024 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index rose forty-one points but remained negative at -2.4. New orders declined modestly, while shipments edged higher. Unfilled orders continued to shrink, ...

Manufacturing activity in the region expanded overall, according to the firms responding to the February Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's indicators for current general activity and shipments rose and turned positive. The indicator for new orders also rose but remained negative. The employment index suggests declines ...

In the week ending February 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 212,000, a decrease of
8,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 218,000 to
220,000. The 4-week moving average was 218,500, an increase of 5,750 from the previous week's revised ...

Industrial production edged down 0.1 percent in January after recording no change in December. In January, manufacturing output declined 0.5 percent and mining output fell 2.3 percent; winter weather contributed to the declines in both sectors. The index for utilities jumped 6.0 percent, as demand for heating surged following a move from ...

Mortgage applications decreased 2.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 9, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one ...

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.2 percent in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.1 percent before ...

All employees
Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.3 percent from December to January, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.6 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.3 percent in theConsumer Price Index for All ...

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index decreased two points in January to 89.9, marking the 25th consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98. The net percent of owners who expect real sales to be higher declined 12 points from December to a net negative 16% (seasonally adjusted), a very negative shift ...

The near-term outlook for the U.S. economy looks better now than it did three months ago, according to 34 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters predict the economy will expand at an annual rate of 2.1 percent this quarter, up from the prediction of 0.8 percent in the last survey. On an ...

In the week ending February 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 218,000, a decrease of
9,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 3,000 from 224,000 to
227,000. The 4-week moving average was 212,250, an increase of 3,750 from the previous week's revised ...

The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence™ in collaboration with The Business Council improved to 53 in Q1 2024, up from 46 in the fourth quarter of 2023. The Measure is now above 50, a reading that suggests CEOs have become optimistic about what’s ahead for the economy. Importantly, this is the first time optimism has prevailed in ...

In 2023, consumer credit increased 2.4 percent, with revolving and nonrevolving credit increasing 8.4 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively. During the fourth quarter, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.6 percent, while in December it increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of ...

Mortgage applications increased 3.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 2, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 3.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one ...

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $62.2 billion in December, up $0.3 billion from $61.9 billion in November, revised.

Exports, Imports, and Balance
December exports were $258.2 billion, $3.9 billion more than November exports. December imports were $320.4 billion, $4.2 billion more than November imports.
The December increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the ...

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in January to 113.71, up from a downwardly revised 112.91 in December. The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for employment. When the Index increases, employment is likely to grow as well, and vice versa. Turning points in the Index indicate that a change in the ...

Economic activity in the services sector expanded in January for the 13th consecutive month as the Services PMI® registered 53.4 percent, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®. The sector has grown in 43 of the last 44 months, with the lone contraction in ...

Consumer sentiment soared 13% in January to reach its highest level since July 2021—continuing the sharp increase seen in December—primarily on the basis of an improving outlook over inflation and personal incomes, according to the University of Michigan Surveys ...

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 353,000 in January, and the unemployment rate remained at 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, retail trade, and social assistance. Employment declined in the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas ...

Summary
New orders for manufactured goods in December, up four of the last five months, increased $1.2 billion or 0.2 percent to $594.3 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 2.6 percent November increase. Shipments, up two consecutive months, increased $0.3 billion or virtually unchanged to $581.0 billion. This followed ...

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in January for the 15th consecutive month following one month of “unchanged” status (a PMI® reading of 50 percent) and 28 months of growth prior to that, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report ...

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 3.7 percent and hours worked increased 0.4 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.) From the same quarter a year ago, ...

In the week ending January 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 224,000, an increase of
9,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 214,000 to
215,000. The 4-week moving average was 207,750, an increase of 5,250 from the previous week's revised ...

Total Construction
Construction spending during December 2023 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,096.0 billion, 0.9 percent (± 0.8 percent) above the revised November estimate of $2,078.3 billion. The December figure is 13.9 percent (±1.5 percent) above the December 2022 estimate of ...