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Bill Dudley: The Fed Thinks It’s Fighting Inflation. Think Again.
Posted: May 30, 2024 at 06:00 AM (Thursday)

Even at more than 5.25%, the central bank’s short-term interest-rate target might not be high enough to cool the economy. To a large and under-appreciated extent, the job of the US Federal Reserve entails chasing an elusive number: r*, or the neutral short-term interest rate. When the Fed’s target rate is above r*, it should restrict growth. ...


Bill Dudley: The Fed’s Quantitative Easing Program Cost Too Much
Posted: April 30, 2024 at 05:00 AM (Tuesday)

The total bill could exceed $500 billion. A proper evaluation should make the next one less expensive. America’s experiment with quantitative easing is almost over. This week, the Federal Reserve will likely announce plans to slow the shrinkage of its balance sheet, foreboding the end of a long period in which it sought to stimulate the economy ...


Bill Dudley: The Fed Is Wrong About How Low Interest Rates Will Go
Posted: April 4, 2024 at 06:00 AM (Thursday)

This time around, the market has it right. The federal funds rate will probably stay a lot higher than what officials are projecting.Financial markets and the US Federal Reserve remain in disagreement on a subject crucial to asset prices and economic growth: how low interest rates will eventually go. Betting against the Fed is a fraught ...


Bill Dudley: The Bank Run of 2023 Could Easily Happen Again
Posted: April 1, 2024 at 06:00 AM (Monday)

Regulators have yet to address the system’s vulnerability to sudden depositor withdrawals. Ever since the demise of Silicon Valley Bank in March 2023, regulators have been focused primarily on increasing loss-absorbing capital at the largest US financial institutions. Much less attention has been paid to the problem that precipitated last ...


Bill Dudley: Federal Reserve Flight 2024 Hasn’t Landed Yet
Posted: February 19, 2024 at 11:00 PM (Monday)

Defeating inflation without crashing the economy is still a challenge. Financial markets have lately been intensely focused on the US Federal Reserve’s next moves: How soon will it start cutting interest rates, and how low will it take them this year? That’s really hard to answer, but I can offer some insight into what will drive the ...


Bill Dudley: Have No Fear of the Fed’s $7 Trillion Stash
Posted: January 17, 2024 at 06:00 AM (Wednesday)

This time around, quantitative tightening needn’t destabilize money markets. The US Federal Reserve faces a monetary-policy challenge above and beyond determining the right level of short-term interest rates: how much and how quickly to reduce the more than $7 trillion in securities still on its balance sheet — holdings it amassed in ...


Bill Dudley: Bank Runs Are Terrible. The Fed Can Eliminate Them.
Posted: January 10, 2024 at 06:00 AM (Wednesday)

There’s a better way to ensure lenders can always pay their depositors. Almost a year ago, America experienced a frightening financial shock: a run on banks, in which depositors raced to pull money out of institutions that they feared were about to collapse. Such events can and should be a thing of the past, but this will require ...


Bill Dudley: If Only We Knew the Problems Facing America's Banks
Posted: January 4, 2024 at 06:05 AM (Thursday)

Almost a year after Silicon Valley Bank's failure, the Federal Reserve is still keeping the public in the dark about the deficiencies it finds at US lenders. The US has yet to fully address one of the greatest weaknesses revealed by last year’s failure of Silicon Valley Bank and other regional lenders: Supervisors saw the problems, but they ...


Bill Dudley: Jerome Powell’s Pivot Is a Pretty Big Gamble
Posted: December 18, 2023 at 06:00 AM (Monday)

The US Federal Reserve has bet its reputation on a soft landing. Here’s hoping it works out. The US Federal Reserve and its chair, Jerome Powell, are betting that they can have the best of both worlds — that they’ll be able to defeat excessive inflation without forcing the economy into recession. I hope it goes well. Unfortunately, there’s still ...


Bill Dudley: Virtual Cash Will Survive the Crypto Winter
Posted: November 28, 2023 at 06:00 AM (Tuesday)

Central bank digital currencies can make the financial system more useful for more people. But the US Federal Reserve needs to get involved. When the crypto bubble was on the rise, it prompted governments to step up development of their own form of electronic cash, known as central bank digital currencies. Now that enthusiasm for crypto has ...


Bill Dudley: What the Federal Funds Rate Isn’t Telling You
Posted: October 24, 2023 at 06:00 AM (Tuesday)

Broader financial conditions matter for the economic outlook. The Fed is right to focus on them. Lately, Federal Reserve officials have been paying greater attention to financial conditions – that is, to the influence that market phenomena such as stock prices, bond yields and housing prices have on economic activity, above and beyond the ...


Bill Dudley: The Fed Still Has a Lot of Quantitative Tightening to Do
Posted: October 18, 2023 at 06:00 AM (Wednesday)

The upward pressure on long-term interest rates from QT will persist until late 2025. The US Federal Reserve’s efforts to quell inflation have sent long-term interest rates to their highest level in a generation, putting a lot of stress on banks, companies and anyone looking to finance a new home. How long will this go on? Judging from the ...


Bill Dudley: Will the Fed Start Believing in a Soft Landing?
Posted: September 19, 2023 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

Five things to watch in the Summary of Economic Projections. Can the Federal Reserve engineer a soft landing, in which it defeats excessive inflation without tipping the US economy into recession? This week, Fed officials will offer important clues as to whether that’s achievable.The Sept. 19-20 meeting of the policy-making Federal Open ...


Bill Dudley: Bigger Financial Cushions Won’t Solve Banks’ Woes
Posted: September 11, 2023 at 06:00 AM (Monday)

US regulators want to boost capital requirements for the biggest banks by nearly 20%. There are better ways to make the financial system more resilient. US banking regulators are back to their old tricks. In the wake of a crisis — this time the March demise of a handful of regional banks — they want banks to fund themselves with ...


Bill Dudley: Goodbye to the Bull Market for US Treasury Bonds
Posted: August 22, 2023 at 06:00 AM (Tuesday)

The paradigm has shifted. Higher yields are back. Who knew that the subject of US Treasury bond yields could inspire such passion? When, in late June, I argued that they were likely to move considerably higher than the then-prevailing 3.75%, I attracted some vehement pushback. In a publication titled “Don’t Be a Dud,” analysts at Morgan ...


Bill Dudley: A US Soft Landing? Even the Fed Doesn’t Believe It
Posted: August 1, 2023 at 05:00 AM (Tuesday)

Unless 3.6% unemployment is the new normal, the central bank has more tightening to do. After a string of encouraging data, markets are displaying increasing optimism that the Federal Reserve might be done with its battle against inflation – and that the US will experience a rare "soft landing," in which inflation falls back to 2% and the ...


Bill Dudley: When Parsing the Banking Crisis, Don’t Forget Easy Money
Posted: April 19, 2023 at 05:00 AM (Wednesday)

Sometimes the Fed has to get creative to support the economy. But it must consider the risks, too. Having presided over America's first banking crisis since 2008, Federal Reserve officials are rightly focused on reforming regulation. That said, they should keep in mind some lessons for monetary policy, too. The Fed has promised to complete ...


Bill Dudley: Five Steps to Stop the Next Run on America’s Banks
Posted: March 22, 2023 at 06:00 AM (Wednesday)

Lessons for regulators from three weeks of financial mayhem. The banking havoc of the past few weeks has focused attention on regulators: What should they learn, and what should they do about it? I see five lessons, and five prescriptions. First, banking rests on confidence. For uninsured depositors, running at the first sign of trouble is ...


Bill Dudley: The Fed Can Fight Both Inflation and Bank Contagion
Posted: March 21, 2023 at 05:00 AM (Tuesday)

The central bank doesn’t have to sacrifice its monetary policy goals to calm turmoil in the financial sector. The US Federal Reserve is facing increasing pressure to sacrifice its monetary-policy goals for the sake of financial stability, on the grounds that its interest-rate increases are to blame for the turmoil in the banking sector. This is ...


Bill Dudley: Look Out America, Here Come the Bond Vigilantes
Posted: March 13, 2023 at 06:00 AM (Monday)

If US officials don’t do something about the government’s fiscal problems, the bond market will. As recently as the early 1990s, America's leaders cared a lot about how bond investors would react to their decisions. James Carville, a political strategist for Bill Clinton, famously said that he'd like to be reincarnated as the bond market, ...


Bill Dudley: Money Doesn’t Make America’s Economy Go Around
Posted: February 28, 2023 at 06:00 AM (Tuesday)

“Money printer go brrrrr” doesn’t describe how Federal Reserve policy actually operates. Internet memes and pundits alike often display a specific understanding of how the US economy works: that the sheer volume of money is the most important determinant of output and prices. Following their logic, the Federal Reserve's pandemic-related ...


Bill Dudley: Will the Fed Go Longer or Higher? Maybe Both
Posted: February 13, 2023 at 06:00 AM (Monday)

A moderate and patient approach to raising interest rates would increase the chances of a soft landing for the US economy. But the central bank might not have that luxury. How will the US Federal Reserve wage its battle with inflation — by keeping interest rates elevated for longer, or by taking them even higher? Investors are fixated on ...


Bill Dudley: What Could Go Wrong for the Federal Reserve in 2023
Posted: January 3, 2023 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)

The central bank faces three significant risks in its ongoing battle to get inflation back under control. In some ways, the 2023 economic outlook for the US is locked in. The Federal Reserve's goal is to push the rate of inflation back down to 2% over the next few years. It will do this by keeping monetary policy tight enough for long enough ...


Bill Dudley: Investors Would Be Better Off Believing the Fed
Posted: December 19, 2022 at 05:00 AM (Monday)

If markets remain optimistic, the central bank will just have to tighten more to achieve its inflation objective. Try as it might, the Federal Reserve can't seem to break the market's relative optimism about the outlook for interest rates. But there's one thing investors need to understand: The central bank has ample power to make its ...


Bill Dudley: The Fed Shouldn’t Raise Its Inflation Target
Posted: November 28, 2022 at 07:00 AM (Monday)

Changing the objective now would be bad for the economy and for the central bank’s own credibility. Some people are suggesting that the Federal Reserve consider a compromise in its battle with rising prices: Instead of imposing the full monetary tightening required to get inflation back down to its 2% target, why not increase the target a bit? ...


Bill Dudley: Want to Know Where Crypto Is Headed? Remember 2008
Posted: November 21, 2022 at 07:00 AM (Monday)

The repercussions won’t be as dire as those of the financial crisis. But a comparison offers insights into what comes next. History may not repeat, but it certainly rhymes. Although the repercussions of the carnage in crypto markets won't be as broad or dire as those of the 2008 financial crisis, the parallels between the two episodes ...

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