• The Chicago Business Barometer™, produced with MNI, improved by 5.9 points to 48.7 in August. This represents the third consecutive monthly increase and the highest level since August 2022. With the exception of Order Backlogs, all of the subcomponents rose.
• New Orders, Production and Employment all showed significant gains, albeit with ...

Personal income increased $45.0 billion (0.2 percent at a monthly rate) in July, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $7.3 billion (less than 0.1 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $144.6 ...

In the week ending August 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 228,000, a decrease of 4,000
from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 230,000 to 232,000. The
4-week moving average was 237,500, an increase of 250 from the previous week's revised average. The ...

U.S.-based employers announced 75,151 cuts in August, a 217% increase from the 23,697 cuts announced one month prior. It is 267% higher than the 20,485 cuts announced in the same month in 2022, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. So far ...

Pending home sales increased 0.9% in July – rising for the second consecutive month – according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Northeast and Midwest posted monthly losses, while sales in the South and West grew. All four U.S. regions saw year-over-year declines ...

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the second quarter of 2023 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.0 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.4 percent (refer to "Updates to GDP"). The updated estimates primarily reflected ...

Private sector employment increased by 177,000 jobs in August and annual pay was up 5.9 percent year-over-year, according to the August ADP® National Employment ReportTM produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab ...

Mortgage applications increased 2.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 25, 2023.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 3 ...

The number of job openings edged down to 8.8 million on the last business day of July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, the number of hires and total separations changed little at 5.8 million and 5.5 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.5 million) decreased, while layoffs and discharges ...

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined in August to 106.1 (1985=100), from a downwardly revised 114.0 in July. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell to 144.8 (1985=100) from 153.0. The Expectations Index— based on consumers’ short-term outlook for ...

S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for June 2023 show all 20 major metro markets reported month-over-month price increases for the fourth straight ...

According to the Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch, the national Small Business Jobs Index — which measures the rate of small business job growth in the U.S. — is essentially flat at 99.10, a decrease of 0.04% in August. Meanwhile, an hourly earnings growth rate of 3.98% among U.S. small businesses is unchanged in August ...

Texas factory activity contracted again in August, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell six points to -11.2—its lowest level since May 2020.

Other measures of manufacturing activity also indicated contraction in August. The new orders index has been in negative territory for more than a year and posted a reading of -15.8, up slightly from July. The capacity utilization index edged down to -3.7, and the shipments ...

Consumer sentiment was relatively unchanged in August and ended the month with its second-highest reading in 21 months, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

This follows two months of large jumps in sentiment resulting from the substantial slowdown in inflation and ongoing strength in labor markets. Overall, consumers remain supported by strong income expectations, but they perceive few meaningful improvements in August ...

Tenth District manufacturing activity was unchanged in August, and expectations for future activity rose slightly. District firms’ finished product prices continued to decline on a monthly basis even as raw materials prices increased. Firms continue to expect input and output price increases in the next ...

In the week ending August 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 230,000, a decrease of
10,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 239,000 to
240,000. The 4-week moving average was 236,750, an increase of 2,250 from the previous week's revised ...

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in July, down following four consecutive monthly increases, decreased $15.5 billion or 5.2 percent to $285.9 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 4.4 percent June increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.5 percent. Excluding defense, new ...

Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.12 in July from –0.33 in June. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from June, and two of the four categories made positive contributions in July. The index’s three-month moving ...

New Home Sales
Sales of new single‐family houses in July 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 714,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 4.4 percent (±12.8 percent)* above the revised June rate of 684,000 and is 31.5 percent ...

Mortgage applications decreased 4.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 18, 2023.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 4.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 3 ...

Existing-home sales receded in July, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Among the four major U.S. regions, sales grew in the West but faded in the Northeast, Midwest and South. All four regions registered year-over-year sales declines.

Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – waned 2.2% from June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.07 million in July. Year-over-year, sales slumped 16.6% (down from 4.88 million in July ...

Fifth District manufacturing activity remained sluggish in August, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index edged up from −9 in July to −7 in August. Two of its three component indexes — shipments and new orders — also increased. The shipments index edged up from −6 in July ...

Nonmanufacturing activity in the region remained weak overall this month, according to the firms responding to the August Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The index for general activity at the firm level fell to a near-zero reading, while the index for new orders remained negative and the index for sales/revenues returned to ...

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.4 percent in July 2023 to 105.8 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.7 percent in June. The LEI is down 4.0 percent over the six-month period between January and July 2023—a slight deterioration from its 3.7 percent contraction over the previous six months (July 2022 ...

In the week ending August 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 239,000, a decrease of
11,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 248,000 to
250,000. The 4-week moving average was 234,250, an increase of 2,750 from the previous week's revised ...

Manufacturing activity in the region expanded overall, according to the firms responding to the August Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments were all positive for the first time since May 2022. However, the firms reported a decline in employment, on balance. The price ...

In July, total industrial production increased 1.0 percent following declines in the previous two months. Manufacturing output rose 0.5 percent in July; the production of motor vehicles and parts jumped 5.2 percent, while factory output elsewhere edged up 0.1 percent. The index for mining moved up 0.5 percent, and the index for utilities ...

Building Permits
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,442,000. This is 0.1 percent above the revised June rate of 1,441,000, but is 13.0 percent below the July 2022 rate of 1,658,000. Single‐family authorizations in July were at a rate of 930,000; this is 0.6 ...

Mortgage applications decreased 0.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 11, 2023.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 0.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 2 ...

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for June 2023. The sum total in June of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC inflow of $147.8 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $119.8 billion, and net ...

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for June, adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,818.6 billion, down 0.1 percent (±0.2 percent)* from May 2023 and was down 3.1 percent (±0.4 percent) from ...

After steadily rising for seven consecutive months, builder confidence retreated in August as rising mortgage rates nearing 7% (per Freddie Mac) and stubbornly high shelter inflation have further eroded housing affordability and put a damper on consumer demand.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes in August fell six points to 50, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. ...

Prices for U.S. imports advanced 0.4 percent in July following a 0.1-percent decline the previous month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The July increase was driven by higher fuel prices. U.S. export prices rose 0.7 percent in July, after decreasing 0.7 percent ...

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $696.4 billion, up 0.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 3.2 percent (±0.7 percent) above July 2022. Total sales for the May 2023 through July ...

Business activity declined in New York State, according to firms responding to the August 2023 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell twenty points to -19.0. New orders and shipments fell significantly. Delivery times were steady, and inventories moved lower. Labor market indicators pointed to ...

The U.S. economy for the next three quarters looks stronger now than it did three months ago, according to 37 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The panel predicts real GDP will grow at an annual rate of 1.9 percent this quarter, up from the prediction of 0.6 percent in the last survey. Over the next two ...

Consumer sentiment was essentially unchanged from July, with small offsetting increases and decreases within the index. At 71.2 index points, sentiment is now about 42% above the all-time historic low reached in June of 2022 and is approaching the historical average reading of 86. In general, consumers perceived few material differences in ...

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.3 percent in July, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices were unchanged in June and declined 0.3 percent in May. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand advanced 0.8 percent for the 12 months ended in ...

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.2 percent in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.2 percent before ...

All employees

Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.3 percent from June to July, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.4 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.2 ...

In the week ending August 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 248,000, an increase of
21,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 227,000. The 4-week moving average was 231,000, an increase of
2,750 from the previous week's unrevised average ...

The Conference Board−Lightcast Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Index rose in July to 161.9 (July 2018=100), up from a downwardly revised 161.3 in June. The 0.3 percent increase between July and June follows a 0.4 percent decrease between June and May. Overall, the Index is down 6.8 percent from one ...

Mortgage applications decreased 3.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 4, 2023.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 3.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 4 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 4 ...

June 2023 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences but not for price changes, were $643.3 billion, down 0.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from the revised May level and were down 6.7 percent (±1.1 percent) from the revised June 2022 level. ...

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $65.5 billion in June, down $2.8 billion from $68.3 billion in May, revised.

Exports, Imports, and Balance
June exports were $247.5 billion, $0.3 billion less than May exports. June imports were $313.0 billion, $3.1 billion less than May imports.The June decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $2.8 ...

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased 0.9 of a point in July to 91.9, marking the 19th consecutive month below the 49-year average of 98. Twenty-one percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, down three points ...

Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4 percent during the second quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 7.1 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 3 percent. In June, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of ...

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in July to 115.45, up from a downwardly revised reading of 113.56 in June. The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for employment. When the Index increases, employment is likely to grow as well, and vice versa. Turning points in the Index indicate that a change in ...

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 187,000 in July, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, social assistance, financial activities, and wholesale trade.

This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For more ...

Summary
New orders for manufactured goods in June, up six of the last seven months, increased $13.4 billion or 2.3 percent to $592.0 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 0.4 percent May increase. Shipments, up two consecutive months, increased $0.7 billion or 0.1 percent to $573.9 billion. This followed a 0.4 percent ...