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| Conor Sen: Housing Will Get More Expensive Because of the Fed Posted: April 25, 2024 at 06:30 AM (Thursday)The only way to address the primary driver of high shelter costs is to build more apartments and houses. High interest rates prevent that. It may seem counterintuitive to suggest that today’s high interest rates will fuel shelter inflation down the road. After all, the Federal Reserve has tightened monetary policy to stamp out price pressures ... | |
| Conor Sen: A Dream Run for Homebuilders Is Ending Posted: March 26, 2024 at 06:30 AM (Tuesday)A rise in the number of existing houses for sale should soften prices, making the environment more competitive for new construction. Homebuilders were one of the big surprise winners in the US economy last year as record-low inventory of existing houses for sale and gently rising prices allowed companies such as KB Home and Lennar Corp. to ... | |
| Conor Sen: Who’s Waiting on the Fed? Not the Credit Market Posted: March 19, 2024 at 07:00 AM (Tuesday)Lending and bond-market activity are climbing as bankers and investors focus on the salubrious effects of rate cuts to come. The timing and pace of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts will consume economists and market commentators for months to come. But an emerging story in 2024 is that lenders and borrowers are jumping the gun well in advance ... | |
| Conor Sen: Need to Sell Your House? It’s Time to Hustle Posted: February 29, 2024 at 05:00 AM (Thursday)Sellers are finally giving up the wait, driving up inventory levels and handing negotiating power back to would-be buyers in many markets. If you need to sell your home in the next few months, I’d get on with it. As we enter the spring selling season, it’s becoming increasingly clear that the period during which sellers had the leverage in ... | |
| Conor Sen: A Soft Landing for the US Economy Could Slip Away Posted: February 7, 2024 at 05:00 AM (Wednesday)Businesses and consumers can withstand overly restrictive borrowing costs for only so long. Stocks and bonds rallied at the end of last year on the hope of a seemingly improbable combination of dynamics playing out to support financial assets in 2024 — cooling inflation, solid economic growth, a resilient labor market, and as much as 150 ... | |
| Conor Sen: The American Economy Is a Shop Full of Surprises Posted: January 31, 2024 at 05:00 AM (Wednesday)The sticker shock of the pandemic is in the rearview mirror and consumers are back to their buying ways again. Economic growth in the US is off to a better start than expected this year, thanks largely to a long-awaited pickup in consumers buying “stuff” again after they shifted spending to experiences in 2022. Shoppers have been spurred by ... | |
| Conor Sen: Shorter Workweek Is Canary of the Labor Market Posted: January 18, 2024 at 06:00 AM (Thursday)Moderating inflation and still tepid demand are a difficult combination for corporate America. Corporate America has greeted 2024 with a run of job-cut announcements. The reductions, though modest, seem puzzling at a time when the stock market is flirting with all-time highs and real gross domestic product growth continues to be healthy. Think ... | |
| Conor Sen: Unhappy American Consumers Will Welcome a Slower Economy Posted: November 29, 2023 at 05:30 AM (Wednesday)Moderating inflation and borrowing costs are just what households need to lift their mood. The unhappiness of American consumers despite rapid job and economic growth in the past few years is a hotly debated topic. Is it inflation? High borrowing costs for homes and automobiles? Crowded airports and packed airplanes? For better or ... | |
| Conor Sen: The Job Market Slowdown Is Getting Hard to Ignore Posted: November 14, 2023 at 06:00 AM (Tuesday)The payrolls data still looks fine, but under the hood are signs of deterioration for the growing number of people who are unemployed or keen to switch jobs. It’s easy to look at the rise in the unemployment rate over the past six months and attribute it to a growing labor force, as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. argued over the weekend, or a ... | |
| Conor Sen: The US Housing Market Is Now Completely Broken Posted: October 20, 2023 at 07:30 AM (Friday)New construction was the sector’s only bright spot. Mortgage rates near 8% have wrecked homebuilder sentiment and buyer appetite. For the first time since the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates, every part of the housing market is now poised to worsen. The resale market has been slumping since early 2022 as potential sellers sit ... | |
| Conor Sen: A Glimmer of Hope in a Dysfunctional Housing Market Posted: September 28, 2023 at 07:30 AM (Thursday)Frustrated US homebuyers may finally catch a break as rising inventories and motivated sellers may hold down prices next year. Home prices are once again on the rise following a brief decline. But before would-be homebuyers start to worry about prices zooming higher from here, note the emerging evidence of a shift in the balance of power in ... | |
| Conor Sen: Inflation or Recession? CEOs Will Decide Next Month Posted: September 20, 2023 at 06:00 AM (Wednesday)Companies need to decide how they will deal with increasing pressure on profit margins — setting the direction for the economy. Consumers might still be benefiting from inflation pressures abating, but the same is no longer true for corporations.Categories that provided relief to companies’ bottom lines over the past year — freight and ... | |
| Conor Sen: Worried About the American Consumer? Don’t Be. Posted: September 12, 2023 at 05:30 AM (Tuesday)Households are still reaping the benefits of a surge in home equity and aren’t in the mood to save. That’s good news for the economy. Arguably, the biggest question about the US economy right now is whether consumers can maintain their pace of spending. Student loan payments resume in October. Pandemic-era excess savings are expected to run out ... | |
| Conor Sen: The US Economy Can't Sustain Its Red-Hot Pace, Right? Posted: August 21, 2023 at 05:00 AM (Monday)Just as there were reasons a year ago to think growth would pick up in 2023, there are now reasons to think it will slow over the next six months. Halfway through the third quarter, the economy is looking surprisingly strong. A tracker from the Atlanta branch of the Federal Reserve has real gross domestic product growth, based on the limited ... | |
| Conor Sen: The US Housing Drought Is Ending. What Does It Mean for Prices? Posted: August 3, 2023 at 06:00 AM (Thursday)There are growing signs that the supply of new and resale homes on the market will pick up in 2024, taking some of the steam out of prices. The story of US housing for hopeful buyers in 2023 has been one of frustration. A lack of supply has stabilized a market where affordability remains challenging.Homeowners with low mortgage rates have ... | |
| Conor Sen: Inflation Head Fake Should Keep Fed on Guard Posted: July 26, 2023 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)Signs of an economic rebound are mounting, pointing to a return of policy angst for the Fed next year. Signs of abating inflation have lifted the spirits of investors, the White House and the general public this month. While a welcome relief, inflation tends to be a lagging rather than a leading economic indicator. More forward-looking measures ... | |
| Conor Sen: Lower Mortgage Rates Won’t Make Homes More Affordable Posted: April 25, 2023 at 06:00 AM (Tuesday) The housing market is so tight, any relief on borrowing costs will just drive up prices, providing little help to buyers. Homebuyers can't catch a break. Sharply higher mortgage rates made houses more expensive and weakened demand without doing much to lower prices in most of the US. The supply of existing homes shrunk as owners hung on to ... | |
| Conor Sen: Can’t Find a Home to Buy? It’s Going to Get Much Worse. Posted: April 20, 2023 at 08:53 AM (Thursday) Jittery homebuilders aren’t ramping up construction fast enough to ease what’s already a severe housing shortage. Homebuilders continue to finish homes faster than they're starting new ones. Improved supply chains are allowing them to work through backlogs built up during the pandemic when they couldn't keep up with demand. But as mortgage ... | |
| Conor Sen: Decline of White-Collar Workers Is Making More Room for Others Posted: April 17, 2023 at 05:00 AM (Monday) Younger people entering the workforce are shoring up growth and helping offset the slide in office jobs. Knowledge workers in technology, finance and elsewhere in corporate America are used to having the most options and leverage in the labor market. They are still far from facing hard times, but recent data suggest their fortunes ... | |
| Conor Sen: What Makes This Economic Slowdown Different From the Others? Posted: March 30, 2023 at 06:30 AM (Thursday) Past declines have been about unwinding excesses in investment, hiring or construction. This one is about unwinding excessive belief in low interest rates. We've been watching slumps ripple through various parts of the economy over the past 18 months: technology startups and stocks, regional banks and growing concern about commercial real ... | |
| Conor Sen: Housing Is Suddenly a Bright Spot in the Economy Posted: March 22, 2023 at 06:30 AM (Wednesday)After a year of dragging down GDP, homebuilders are showing strength just when the economy may need it most. Ready for a little good news? As investors take stock of the fallout from the Silicon Valley Bank failure and wonder about broader fallout for the economy in the coming months, the housing market has delivered some reason for optimism. ... | |
| Conor Sen: Uncle Sam Is Disrupting the Venture Capital World Posted: March 2, 2023 at 06:30 AM (Thursday) Biden is tying startup funding to his national and social policy priorities. That’s probably an improvement over Silicon Valley values. Higher interest rates, slumping stock prices and corporate America's shift in focus from growth to profitability has taken the air out of one of the main drivers of innovation and new company formation in ... | |
| Conor Sen: For Many Homebuyers, It’s New Construction or Nothing Posted: February 27, 2023 at 06:00 AM (Monday) With current owners staying put thanks to cheap mortgages, existing homes for sale are hard to find. That puts homebuilders in the catbird seat. After the housing market's surprise rebound in January, 30-year mortgage rates have risen to nearly 7%, cooling things back off. Mortgage applications have slumped to a 28-year low. But that's not ... | |
| Conor Sen: Cheer Up, Corporate America. Your Gloom Is Part of the Problem Posted: February 8, 2023 at 05:30 AM (Wednesday)CEOs need to stop trash-talking the economy unless they want to make it a self-fulfilling prophecy. The official economic forecast is still chilly for 2023, but a host of indicators suggest things were heating up, not cooling, in the first month of the year. Auto sales had their best month since the first half of 2021. The housing market ... | |
| Conor Sen: Homebuilders Are Signaling Buyers to Wait a Little Longer Posted: January 19, 2023 at 06:00 AM (Thursday)Price cuts on new houses will be more plentiful in a few months as construction backlogs begin to ease and costs continue to come down. After 30-year mortgage rates surged past 7% in October, a decline to near 6% in recent weeks has made the start of 2023 look less awful than some had feared. So what does this mean if you're looking to buy ... | |
| Conor Sen: Sub-2% Inflation Is on the Horizon, But It Won’t Last Posted: January 17, 2023 at 06:30 AM (Tuesday)A strong labor market and lower prices for housing and consumer goods will help keep the economy growing this year, but brace for a rebound back into "too hot" territory. One of the main questions for the US economy in 2023 is how the trajectory of inflation will unfold. While the Federal Reserve's forecast for core inflation this year ... | |
| Conor Sen: Rental Housing Is Suddenly Headed Toward a Hard Landing Posted: January 9, 2023 at 06:30 AM (Monday)While investors were focused on fears of a collapse in the homebuying industry, a crash in the apartment market has been taking shape. For most of the past year, investment risk in the housing market has been focused on the for-sale segment. That was largely because the huge run-up in home prices during the pandemic led to a mentality of ... | |
| Conor Sen: Cooling Economy Is Giving US Workers a Lift Posted: December 15, 2022 at 06:00 AM (Thursday)Easing inflation and mended supply chains are translating into more buying power for Americans despite a softer labor market. The red-hot labor market is cooling. Monthly US job growth has slowed to around 270,000 from more than 500,000 at the start of the year. Employers are staffing up, returning average work weeks to pre-pandemic ... | |
| Conor Sen: Gloom on the Factory Floor Will Soon Give Way to Cheer Posted: December 7, 2022 at 06:30 AM (Wednesday) A supply chain broken by the pandemic is slowly getting back on its feet, and improvements will continue rippling through the markets well into the new year. Two data releases came out last week that told seemingly conflicting stories about the state of the economy. The ISM Manufacturing survey , a key bellwether of ... | |
| Conor Sen: Bond Market’s Inverted Yield Curve Has Something for Everyone Posted: November 21, 2022 at 06:00 AM (Monday)With inflation easing, the current upside-down nature of market rates support the idea of a soft landing for the economy as much as they do a downturn. An inverted yield curve — when longer-term interest rates like the 10-year yield are lower than short-term interest rates like the 2-year yield — has historically been one of the most ... | |
| Conor Sen: Auto Industry Is the Economy’s Best Hope Right Now Posted: November 16, 2022 at 06:00 AM (Wednesday) The car market contributed to supply chain turmoil, and soaring prices helped drive up inflation. Now it’s returning to normal. If you had to point to one culprit holding back the economy over the past 18 months, it would be the auto industry. Supply chain problems like the shortage of semiconductors have contributed to weak economic ... | |