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Review & Outlook: Hillary Clinton Did It
Posted: May 20, 2022 at 06:39 PM (Friday)

Her 2016 campaign manager says she approved a plan to plant a false Russia claim with a reporter. The Russia-Trump collusion narrative of 2016 and beyond was a dirty trick for the ages, and now we know it came from the top—candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton. That was the testimony Friday by 2016 Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook in federal ...


John Tamny: If You Expected Bitcoin to Beat Gold As An Inflation Hedge, You Understand Neither Gold nor Inflation
Posted: May 20, 2022 at 04:00 PM (Friday)

The market speculation that is Bitcoin has risen to prominence for a variety of reasons, but it’s not unreasonable to say that the dollar, euro, yen, pound, yuan (or name your county’s currency) have served as the cryptocurrency’s greatest publicists. Owing to rising skepticism about government-issued “fiat” money, Bitcoin has had much more ...


Milton Ezrati: Can We Avoid a Recession?
Posted: May 20, 2022 at 10:29 AM (Friday)

Policymakers have squandered precious time. Perceptions of the American economy have changed dramatically. Not long ago, the country seemed to be enjoying a robust post-pandemic recovery. Supply-chain issues were causing some problems, but businesses were hiring, and financial markets were reaching new highs. Inflation prompted some anxiety, ...


Desmond Lachman: On our way to a hard economic landing | The Hill
Posted: May 20, 2022 at 09:30 AM (Friday)

Anyone who believes that the Federal Reserve will succeed in its efforts to reduce inflation without causing a hard economic landing has not been paying attention to the recent meltdown in the financial markets. Nor have they been paying attention to the dramatic increase in mortgage rates or to the rapid rise in the dollar. Until very ...


Steve Rattner: The Stock Market Heads Toward Earth
Posted: May 20, 2022 at 09:00 AM (Friday)

On MSNBC's Morning Joe today, Steven Rattner charted the stock market's recent declines amid souring investor sentiment, economic headwinds, and rising interest rates. The stock market is off to its worst start since 1940 as it is beset by a variety of headwinds, from rising interest rates to wobbly consumer demand to the pressure of its ...


Brian Riedl: The Democrats’ Cynical ‘Greedflation’ Narrative
Posted: May 20, 2022 at 06:30 AM (Friday)

Many of the Democrats who are scapegoating greedy businesses for inflation do not actually believe it. But they hope you will. President Biden and congressional Democrats spent a full year downplaying the inflation that buried families and swept across the economy. Now that the president’s approval rating has crashed into the 30s and voters ...


Jeanna Smialek and Talmon Joseph Smith: Biden’s Curious Talking Point: Lower Deficits Offer Inflation Relief
Posted: May 20, 2022 at 05:00 AM (Friday)

The administration says federal spending trends are helping rein in price increases, but the economic calculus may be more complicated. As Americans deal with the highest inflation in decades, President Biden has declared that combating rising costs is a priority for his administration. Lately, he has cited one policy in particular as ...


Niall Ferguson: America, China, Russia and the Avalanche of History
Posted: May 20, 2022 at 01:00 AM (Friday)

The world doesn’t move in cycles or with a grand design. Echoes of the 1970s remind us that one disaster often begets others. Does the arc of history bend toward justice? Or is everything falling apart? Philosophers of history have long sought a cycle of history. Ibn Khaldun offered one version in his “Muqaddimah” (1377): Islam in its infancy ...


Jeffrey Snider: Despite What You're Told, This Has Never Been Inflation
Posted: May 20, 2022 at 12:15 AM (Friday)

These are the words never to be uttered. Not if you know what is good for you. They have nothing to do with national security. No secret formulas locked tightly away from prying eyes. A taboo imposed by strict observance with the codes of positive messaging. Keeping up the pretense for as long as it may last, lest the whole house of cards ...


Stephen Moore: Democrats' latest phony inflation scapegoat: Credit cards
Posted: May 19, 2022 at 11:00 PM (Thursday)

In this administration, it's always someone else's fault. Inflation is now the No. 1 concern of voters, so the White House first blamed COVID. Then Trump's tax cuts. Then Putin. Then meatpackers and the poultry industry, Big Oil, and pharmaceutical companies. Now, Democrats have identified a new inflation scapegoat: plastic. Visa, ...


Glenn Harlan Reynolds: The left hates Elon Musk because he's a tycoon they can't bully
Posted: May 19, 2022 at 08:29 PM (Thursday)

Why does the left hate Elon Musk? It's simple, really: Because he can't be controlled, and because he doesn't tolerate BS. The left can't stand either. It insists on control, to the point of systematically eliminating or co-opting anything that might serve as an independent power center. (Their fear is justified: "Music clubs" turned out to be ...


Larry Kudlow: The Many Reasons Why Radical Progressivism Is a Total Failure
Posted: May 19, 2022 at 07:15 PM (Thursday)

Biden progressives are completely in denial about the inflationism of rapid government spending, borrowing, and money printing. Let's begin with the front page of the New York Post. This kind of says it all: "Joe's Train Wreck: Gas hits brutal $6 a gallon; Border crisis gets worse; Ministry of Truth collapses; Market drops 1,164, worst day in ...


Paul Krugman: How the West Is Strangling Putin’s Economy
Posted: May 19, 2022 at 07:00 PM (Thursday)

Russia's military failure in Ukraine has defied almost everyone's predictions. First came abject defeat at the gates of Kyiv. Then came the incredible shrinking blitzkrieg, as attempts to encircle Ukrainian forces in the supposedly more favorable terrain in the east have devolved into a slow-motion battle of attrition. What's important about ...


Boyden Gray and Jonathan Berry: The Welcome Pushback Against Politicized Investment Managers
Posted: May 19, 2022 at 05:53 PM (Thursday)

States, and maybe soon Congress, are resisting the ESG demands of index funds run by BlackRock. Passive investing through index funds lets ordinary Americans own the market. Those funds and similar vehicles spread risk and keep fees low. The resulting rates of return have triggered seismic shifts from active to passive funds. The problem is ...


Veronique de Rugy: Jerome Powell, Who Wildly Misjudged Inflation, Is Overwhelmingly Reconfirmed as Fed Chair
Posted: May 19, 2022 at 03:08 PM (Thursday)

There is seldom any meaningful accountability for government incompetence. After presiding over the biggest Federal Reserve failure in 40 years and with inflation rating as the top concern among Americans, Jerome Powell's nomination to a second term as chairman was approved this past week by the Senate, 80–19. I know the usual arguments ...


Liz Peek: Biden is solving America’s labor shortage — through wealth destruction and looming recession
Posted: May 19, 2022 at 01:30 PM (Thursday)

According to a recent NBC poll, only 33 percent of Americans think President Biden is doing a good job managing the economy. What do they know? Biden has backed reckless government spending that led to a supply and demand imbalance, undermined our domestic oil and gas production, which helped drive energy costs higher, and encouraged ...


E.J. Antoni: Monetary malpractice at the Federal Reserve
Posted: May 19, 2022 at 07:45 AM (Thursday)

If the economy slips into recession, you can "thank" the Federal Reserve. All around the country is the economic detritus of its monetary malfeasance. For two years, the Fed has flooded the economy with cash. That reduced borrowing costs for Congress' spending spree, but it also got the economy addicted to cheap credit, caused asset bubbles ...


Arthur Brooks: Mindfulness Hurts. That’s Why It Works.
Posted: May 19, 2022 at 06:00 AM (Thursday)

Facing the painful parts of life head-on is the only way to feel at home with yourself. Some years ago, a friend told me that his marriage was suffering because he was on the road so much for work. I started counseling him on how to fix things–to move more meetings online, to make do with less money. But no matter what I suggested, he always had ...


Review & Outlook: How Inflation Taxes the Poor
Posted: May 18, 2022 at 06:32 PM (Wednesday)

A lesson for Americans from Britain’s dismal price data. The United Kingdom on Wednesday reported its highest inflation rate since 1982, and welcome to the 40-Year Club alongside the U.S. A new generation on both sides of the Atlantic is learning how erratic price swings can wreck an economy. And in that spirit, a brief research note from a ...


Richard Epstein: All The Wrong Moves On Energy Markets
Posted: May 18, 2022 at 12:56 PM (Wednesday)

In a world of sane energy policy, the following three precepts would take pride of place: (1) the forces of supply and demand would allocate scarce energy resources to their best possible use; (2) constant competitive pressures should lead energy suppliers to reduce their costs of extraction, refinement, and sales, just as it should ...


Marc Joffe: The true depths of our debt crisis
Posted: May 18, 2022 at 12:30 PM (Wednesday)

For over 50 years, both political parties have run up the national debt while ignoring warnings about the long-term unsustainability of federal budgets. Now, the Federal Reserve has quietly turned to inflation to lighten the nation's debt burden through a policy of negative real interest rates. Unfortunately, this policy path is reducing the ...


Michael Strain: Will US Inflation Lead to Recession?
Posted: May 18, 2022 at 09:50 AM (Wednesday)

WASHINGTON, DC – While some economic indicators suggest that the recovery remains on track, others show that consumers may be stalling out, and that households and businesses are becoming increasingly pessimistic. The US Federal Reserve will have to respond more nimbly to economic softening than it did to strengthening in 2021. Rapid ...


David Kotok: What Is The Neutral Real Interest Rate? What About Munis?
Posted: May 18, 2022 at 07:00 AM (Wednesday)

We are going to open this commentary with five of the slides used at the April 27 USF-GIC virtual (and in person) conference on the Russia-Ukraine war and its impacts. The five-part series, “Ukraine: What’s Next?”, is a collaboration between the University of South Florida and the Global Interdependence Center. Nationwide Chief Economist ...


Conor Sen: Remote Working Boom Is Huge for College Towns Like Knoxville
Posted: May 18, 2022 at 06:30 AM (Wednesday)

With the home becoming an increasingly acceptable office for white-collar employees, new graduates won't have to make a beeline for the big city to find high-paying jobs. It's now been two years since the rise of remote work enabled people to start moving out of the big cities, transforming the geographic demography of the United States. And ...


Peter Morici: Biden needs some Republicans on his foreign policy team
Posted: May 18, 2022 at 06:00 AM (Wednesday)

The White House is too much a hot house of economic isolationism and left-wing statism to champion a strong defense and free markets in a dangerous world. Since World War II, U.S. foreign policy has promoted human rights and democracy by maintaining a superior military, offering security commitments to friends in Europe and Asia, and ...


Judy Shelton: Congress Has a Stake in the Dollar’s Integrity
Posted: May 17, 2022 at 06:15 PM (Tuesday)

The Fed’s independence gives Americans no democratic recourse when the currency is debased. Who is responsible for the value of the U.S. dollar? A cardinal rule among American practitioners of fiscal and monetary policy is that Treasury officials don’t discuss monetary policy and Federal Reserve authorities don’t discuss exchange rates. So ...


Allison Schrager: Inventory Shortages: A Growing Concern
Posted: May 17, 2022 at 03:34 PM (Tuesday)

During the pandemic many companies burned through their inventories. Now years later between shortages and high demand, means they still have not recovered. Industrial production may be up, but inventories still have a long way to go before they reach pre-pandemic levels. This suggests the US economy is still prone to shortages if anything ...


Jeanna Smialek: Powell says the Fed is watching for 'clear and convincing’ signs of inflation fading.
Posted: May 17, 2022 at 03:25 PM (Tuesday)

Jerome Powell, the Fed chair, said the central bank is prepared to raise rates more quickly and higher if price pressures fail to fade. Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, said that the central bank is focused on getting rapid inflation under control and that it is ready to intensify its efforts to tamp down price pressures if ...


Mark Mills: Sourcing Energy-Transition Metals And Minerals In A Not-So-Friendly World
Posted: May 17, 2022 at 01:56 PM (Tuesday)

Since the first OPEC oil embargo nearly a half-century ago — and more recently with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — energy producers and consumers alike have learned important lessons about the significance of energy commodity sourcing. It all comes down to this, really: (1) know what you’ll need going forward; (2) diversify your sources of ...


Paul Krugman: Crashing Crypto: Is This Time Different?
Posted: May 17, 2022 at 01:45 PM (Tuesday)

Last week TerraUSD, a stablecoin – a system that was supposed to perform a lot like a conventional bank account but was backed only by a cryptocurrency called Luna – collapsed. Luna lost 97 percent of its value over the course of just 24 hours, apparently destroying some investors' life savings. The event shook the crypto world in general, but ...


Veronique de Rugy: Greedflation Is A Witch Hunt, Not Real Economics
Posted: May 17, 2022 at 11:22 AM (Tuesday)

Dominic Pino had a good post on how hard it is to defend the nonsensical soundbites pushed by Democrats, including the president, on inflation. They are incredibly busy looking for imaginary witches to blame for their irresponsible policies of excessive spending. While there is plenty of blame to go around for the terribly accommodating ...


Andrea Felsted: Walmart Flashes a Warning Sign to the Entire Consumer Economy
Posted: May 17, 2022 at 10:17 AM (Tuesday)

The world’s biggest retailer is known for being careful about costs. But that’s harder to do when prices for everything are going up. Walmart Inc. just highlighted the dark side of inflation. The world's biggest retailer on Tuesday reported profit that fell short of Wall Street expectations and downgraded its outlook for full-year earnings ...


Marc Joffe: Have We Reached Peak China?
Posted: May 17, 2022 at 06:30 AM (Tuesday)

If so, some may need to reconsider their admiration for autocratic technocracies and learn to love the untidiness of competing ideas. China’s ascension to world domination may not be as inevitable as many of us think and fear. Events of the last year have revealed significant vulnerabilities within the country, which could foreshadow a period ...


Norbert Michel: Congress Should Repeal The Durbin Amendment, Not Expand It To Credit Cards
Posted: May 17, 2022 at 06:21 AM (Tuesday)

Americans have been using credit to buy things for just about as long as America has existed, but the consumer goods market has undergone massive changes. So, it’s very easy to forget how the plastic cards that we rely on became so prevalent. Unfortunately, forgetfulness won the day in last week’s Senate Judiciary Committee hearing. Supposedly ...


Karl Smith: Bezos, Not Biden, Is Right on Taxes and Inflation
Posted: May 17, 2022 at 06:00 AM (Tuesday)

Raising corporate rates may be politically appealing to Democrats, but it doesn’t make much sense economically. The Twitter spat between Jeff Bezos and Joe Biden over tax policy and inflation has attracted the attention of no less an authority than Larry Summers, who says that the Amazon founder is "mostly wrong." I hesitate to disagree ...


Jim O'Neill: Another Global Recession?
Posted: May 17, 2022 at 05:24 AM (Tuesday)

LONDON – Between falling real incomes in advanced economies, China’s weakening outlook, and the uncertainties stemming from Russia’s war in Ukraine, there is more than enough reason to worry that the post-pandemic recovery is giving way to a downturn. But there is still much that policymakers could do to mitigate the blow. At the start of ...


John Tamny: If You Think 'Pain' Is Needed to Beat Inflation, Go Back to School
Posted: May 17, 2022 at 12:15 AM (Tuesday)

Last week Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned of looming "pain" from the Fed's fight against inflation. Such an assertion, or observation, or excuse is foolish (and wrongheaded) on too many levels to count. What makes it sad is the consensus from Left and Right about the alleged truth of Powell's comments. The Paul Volcker myth ...


Javier Blas: The Oil Market Needn’t Fear a Calamitous US Recession
Posted: May 17, 2022 at 12:02 AM (Tuesday)

A quick history lesson suggests that an economic slowdown might not be too terrible. Rising US interest rates, sky-high oil prices, soaring inflation, a foreign war. Then, naturally, a recession. The trajectory may sound awfully familiar, but I'm not describing the present-day American economy. Instead, this is what the US looked like in ...


Mohamed El-Erian: The dollar’s rapid rise increases risks for global economy
Posted: May 17, 2022 at 12:00 AM (Tuesday)

Dangers are particularly acute for developing countries already facing number of crises. With so much going on in the global economy and financial markets, the dollar’s strong recent appreciation has attracted less attention than what would have been expected given the historical experience. On paper, the appreciation of the currency of ...


Larry Kudlow: Now’s the Time: Save America. Balance the Budget.
Posted: May 16, 2022 at 06:41 PM (Monday)

The balanced budget, if done properly, would produce rapid economic growth and low inflation. That's right – strong growth, low inflation. It may seem far-fetched, but it occurs to me that now would be a good time to talk about a return to a balanced budget in Washington, D.C. That's right. A balanced budget. Amid uncontrolled federal ...


Review & Outlook: Biden’s Dance With a Latin Dictator
Posted: May 16, 2022 at 06:30 PM (Monday)

Democrats want to help Venezuela’s Maduro sell oil, while restricting U.S. drillers. Is the Biden Administration preparing to ease sanctions on Venezuela to increase the global supply of oil? The State Department denies it, but this is a potentially damaging U.S. policy shift that bears watching in Congress. Mexican President Andrés Manuel ...


Willem Buiter: Fiscal Capture at the ECB
Posted: May 16, 2022 at 10:55 AM (Monday)

LONDON – By using all the means at its disposal to support potentially debt-distressed member states, the European Central Bank is not merely serving as a market maker of last resort. Rather, it is engaged in fiscal-support operations, potentially to the detriment of its mandated objectives. Since the second quarter of 2021, inflation in ...


Thomas Baker: The Sussmann Trial Is a Mueller Legacy
Posted: May 15, 2022 at 03:45 PM (Sunday)

An FBI agent would have figured out what Hillary Clinton’s lawyer was up to in September 2016. Special counsel John Durham’s case against Michael Sussmann is scheduled for trial on Monday. On April 25, Judge Christopher Cooper barred the government from using the bulk of the Central Intelligence Agency’s information related to Mr. ...


Julian Lee: How Russian Is It?: A Very Crude Question
Posted: May 15, 2022 at 01:00 AM (Sunday)

New EU rules are coming into effect but oil from the country is going to continue to flow because it’s going to be very hard to separate crude by geography. Sunday is the day when European Union regulations prohibiting dealings with Russian state energy companies come into effect. That should trigger a further decline in the volume of crude ...


Komal Sri-Kumar: Hawkish Fed Pivot, But Will it Stick?
Posted: May 14, 2022 at 09:07 AM (Saturday)

Jerome Powell spent several months during 2021 claiming that the rise in inflation was "transitory," justifying the sharp increase in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. Repeated statements in SriKonomics writeups (for example, here) that the Chairman was wrong in his assessment did little to persuade him or his colleagues to tighten last ...


Jesse Jenkins: We Can’t Drill Our Way to Energy Security
Posted: May 14, 2022 at 05:00 AM (Saturday)

Thanks to a remarkable oil and gas boom, the United States has achieved the long-sought goal of energy self-sufficiency: We now produce more oil and refined products, natural gas and coal than we consume. In particular, horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing – fracking – transformed the United States from the world's largest oil importer ...


Ed Yardeni: More on Inflation & Stocks
Posted: May 14, 2022 at 12:02 AM (Saturday)

This is an excerpt from our May 11, 2022 Morning Briefing. Strategy I: 1987-Style Bear Market? I've recently been asked when was the last time we had a P/E-led bear market while earnings continued to increase. The obvious answer is 1987. Our monthly Blue Angels framework, which starts in late 1978, shows that the S&P 500 dropped 33.5% from ...


Review & Outlook: Does Biden Want Higher Gas Prices?
Posted: May 13, 2022 at 07:05 PM (Friday)

The Administration cancels offshore oil lease sales, despite surging global prices. Another week, another example of the Biden Administration’s energy incoherence. On Tuesday the President blamed record gasoline prices on Vladimir Putin. The next day the Interior Department announced the cancellation of three offshore oil and gas lease ...


Robert Hughes: Inflation Fears Send Consumer Sentiment Sharply Lower in Early May
Posted: May 13, 2022 at 03:22 PM (Friday)

The preliminary May results from the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers show overall consumer sentiment fell sharply in early May (see top of first chart). The composite consumer sentiment decreased to 59.1 in early May, down from 65.2 in April, a loss of 6.1 points or 9.4 percent. The index is now down 41.9 points from the February ...


Phillip Magness and Alexander William Salter: The zombie economics of inflation and unemployment
Posted: May 13, 2022 at 03:00 PM (Friday)

Bad economic ideas can have a frustratingly long shelf life. Amid surging consumer and producer prices, the apparent tradeoff between inflation and unemployment has become a hot topic. There's just one problem: the tradeoff doesn't exist. Economists have known this for 40 years. Policymakers and commentators asserting otherwise should get with ...