Consumer sentiment was little changed in September, inching down a mere 1.4 index points from August, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

Sentiment has been essentially flat for the past three months, following two months with leaps in sentiment stemming from the substantial slowdown in inflation seen earlier this summer, says chief economist Joanne Hsu, director of the surveys. While consumers recognize the ...

• The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, fell back -4.6 points to 44.1 from 48.7 in August, partially reversing the rebound seen in last month’s data.
• New Orders, Production and Employment were the biggest downside drivers while Order Backlogs limited the downward move and Supplier Deliveries also moved a little higher.
• ...

Personal income increased $87.6 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in August, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (table 2 and table 3). Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $46.6 billion (0.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) ...

Tenth District manufacturing activity declined somewhat in September, and expectations for future activity stayed mostly flat. District firms’ finished product prices picked up slightly this month even as growth in raw materials prices slowed slightly. However, firms expect raw materials price increases to outpace finished product prices in ...

Pending home sales slid 7.1% in August, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. All four U.S. regions posted monthly losses and year-over-year declines in transactions.

"Mortgage rates have been rising above 7% since August, which has diminished the pool of home buyers," said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. "Some would-be home buyers are taking a pause and readjusting their expectations about the location and type of home to better fit ...

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the second quarter of 2023 (table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.2 percent (revised).

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in GDP was also 2.1 percent. The update primarily reflected a downward revision to consumer spending ...

In the week ending September 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 204,000, an increase of
2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 201,000 to
202,000. The 4-week moving average was 211,000, a decrease of 6,250 from the previous week's revised ...

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in August, up five of the last six months, increased $0.5 billion or 0.2 percent to $284.7 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 5.6 percent July decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.7 ...

Mortgage applications decreased 1.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 22, 2023.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 1 ...

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined again in September to 103.0 (1985=100), down from an upwardly revised 108.7 in August. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—rose slightly to 147.1 (1985=100) from 146.7. The Expectations Index—based on ...

New Home Sales
Sales of new single‐family houses in August 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 675,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 8.7 percent (±15.6 percent)* below the revised July rate of 739,000, but is 5.8 percent ...

Fifth District manufacturing activity improved in September, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index increased from −7 in August to 5 in September. Each of its three component indexes — shipments, new orders, and employment — increased. The shipments index improved from −5 ...

S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for July 2023 show that 19 of the 20 major metro markets reported month-over-month price increases.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR ...

Nonmanufacturing activity in the region declined overall this month, according to the firms responding to the September Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The indexes for general activity at the firm level, new orders, and sales/revenues all remained negative. The firms continued to report overall increases in full-time employment ...

Growth in Texas factory activity resumed in September, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rebounded nearly 20 points to 7.9—its highest reading of ...

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.16 in August from +0.07 in July. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from July, and all four categories made negative contributions in August. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, ticked up to –0.14 in August from –0.15 ...

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.4 percent in August 2023 to 105.4 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.3 percent in July. The LEI is down 3.8 percent over the six-month period between February and August 2023—little changed from its 3.9 percent contraction over the previous six months (August 2022 ...

Existing-home sales moved lower in August, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Among the four major U.S. regions, sales improved in the Midwest, were unchanged in the Northeast, and slipped in the South and West. All four regions recorded year-over-year ...

The U.S. current-account deficit, which reflects the combined balances on trade in goods and services and income flows between U.S. residents and residents of other countries, narrowed by $2.4 billion, or 1.1 percent, to $212.1 billion in the second quarter of 2023, according to statistics released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic ...

Manufacturing activity in the region declined overall, according to the firms responding to the September Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments returned to negative territory after turning positive in August. On balance, the firms continued to report a decline in ...

In the week ending September 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 201,000, a decrease of
20,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 220,000 to
221,000. The 4-week moving average was 217,000, a decrease of 7,750 from the previous week's revised ...

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have slowed in recent months but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated.

The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Tighter credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects remains uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks. ...

Mortgage applications increased 5.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 15, 2023. Last week’s results included an adjustment for the Labor ...

Building Permits
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,543,000. This is 6.9 percent above the revised July rate of 1,443,000, but is 2.7 percent below the August 2022 rate of 1,586,000. Single‐family authorizations in August were at a rate of 949,000; this is ...

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for July 2023. The sum total in July of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC inflow of $140.6 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $149.4 billion, and net ...

Persistently high mortgage rates above 7% continue to erode builder confidence, as sentiment levels have dropped below the key break-even measure of 50 for the first time in five months.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes in September fell five points to 45, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. This follows a six-point drop in August. ...

Consumer sentiment inched down a scant 1.8 index points this month and has been essentially flat for the past two months. At 67.7 points, sentiment is currently about 35% above the all-time historic low reached in June of 2022 but remains shy of the historical average reading of 86. Sentiment this month was characterized by divergent ...

Industrial production increased 0.4 percent in August, and manufacturing output inched up 0.1 percent. The August reading for manufacturing was held back by a drop of 5 percent in the output of motor vehicles and parts; factory output elsewhere rose 0.6 percent. The index for mining moved up 1.4 percent, and the index for utilities climbed ...

U.S. import prices rose 0.5 percent in August, after ticking up 0.1 percent the previous month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The August advance was led by higher fuel prices. Prices for U.S. exports increased 1.3 percent in August following a 0.5-percent rise ...

Business activity was little changed in New York State, according to firms responding to the September 2023 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index rose twenty-one points to 1.9. New orders and shipments increased. Delivery times remained steady, and inventories continued to contract. Labor ...

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for July, adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,828.4 billion, up 0.6 percent (±0.1 percent) from June 2023, but was down 1.2 percent (±0.3 percent) from ...

In the week ending September 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 220,000, an increase of
3,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 216,000 to
217,000. The 4-week moving average was 224,500, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's revised ...

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.7 percent in August, seasonally adjusted, after rising 0.4 percent in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The August advance is the largest increase in final demand prices since moving up 0.9 percent in June 2022. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose ...

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $697.6 billion, up 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 2.5 percent (±0.7 percent) above August 2022. Total sales for the June 2023 through ...

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.6 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.2 percent in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.7 percent before ...

All employees

Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.5 percent from July to August, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.2 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.6 ...

Mortgage applications decreased 0.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 8, 2023. This week’s results included an adjustment for the Labor ...

NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index decreased 0.6 of a point in August to 91.3, the 20th consecutive month below the 49-year average of 98. Twenty-three percent of small business owners reported that inflation was their single most important business problem, up two points from last month. The net percent of owners raising average selling ...

July 2023 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences but not for price changes, were $648.1 billion, up 0.8 percent (±0.4 percent) from the revised June level, but were down 4.2 percent (±0.7 percent) from the revised July 2022 level. The ...

In July, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.5 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 9.2 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 0.2 percent.

...

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 3.5 percent in the second quarter of 2023, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, reflecting a 0.2-percentage point downward revision from the preliminary estimate. Output increased 1.9 percent and hours worked decreased 1.5 percent in the second quarter of 2023. The decline ...

In the week ending September 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 216,000, a decrease of
13,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 228,000 to
229,000. The 4-week moving average was 229,250, a decrease of 8,500 from the previous week's revised ...

Overall Economic Activity
Contacts from most Districts indicated economic growth was modest during July and August. Consumer spending on tourism was stronger than expected, surging during what most contacts considered the last stage of pent-up demand for leisure travel from the pandemic era. But other retail spending continued to slow, ...

Economic activity in the services sector expanded in August for the eighth consecutive month as the Services PMI® registered 54.5 percent, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®. The sector has grown in 38 of the last 39 months, with the lone contraction in December of ...

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $65.0 billion in July, up $1.3 billion from $63.7 billion in June, revised.

Exports, Imports, and Balance
July exports were $251.7 billion, $3.9 billion more than June exports. July imports were $316.7 billion, $5.2 billion more than June imports. The July increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of ...

Mortgage applications decreased 2.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 1, 2023.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 5 ...

Summary
New orders for manufactured goods in July, down following four consecutive monthly increases, decreased $12.7 billion or 2.1 percent to $579.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 2.3 percent June increase. Shipments, up three consecutive months, increased $2.9 billion or 0.5 percent to $577.2 billion. ...

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) decreased in August to 113.02, from a downwardly revised 114.71 in July. The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for employment. When the Index increases, employment is likely to grow as well, and vice versa. Turning points in the Index indicate that a change in the trend of ...

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in August for the 10th consecutive month following a 28-month period of growth, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: ...

Total Construction
Construction spending during July 2023 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,972.6 billion, 0.7 percent (±0.5 percent) above the revised June estimate of $1,958.9 billion. The July figure is 5.5 percent (±1.2 percent) above the July 2022 estimate of $1,869.3 billion. During the first seven months of this ...