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Chicago Fed National Activity Index Suggests slower economic growth in August 2023
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The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.16 in August from +0.07 in July. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from July, and all four categories made negative contributions in August. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, ticked up to –0.14 in August from –0.15 in July.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, edged down to –0.04 in August from –0.01 in July. Thirty-five of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in August, while 50 made negative contributions. Thirty-three indicators improved from July to August, while 49 indicators deteriorated and three were unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 16 made negative contributions.
Production-related indicators contributed –0.02 to the CFNAI in August, down from +0.12 in July. Industrial production moved up 0.4 percent in August after increasing 0.7 percent in the previous month. The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI ticked up to –0.03 in August from –0.04 in July.
The contribution of employment-related indicators to the CFNAI was unchanged at –0.04 in August. The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI moved down to –0.08 in August from +0.03 in July.
The CFNAI was constructed using data available as of September 21, 2023. At that time, August data for 51 of the 85 indicators had been published. For all missing data, estimates were used in constructing the index. The July monthly index value was revised to +0.07 from an initial estimate of +0.12, and the June monthly index value was unrevised at –0.33. Revisions to the monthly index can be attributed to two main factors: revisions in previously published data and differences between the estimates of previously unavailable data and subsequently published data. The revision to the July monthly index value was primarily due to the former.
Posted: September 25, 2023 Monday 08:30 AM