The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined moderately in October to 102.6 (1985=100), down from an upwardly revised 104.3 in September. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—declined to 143.1 (1985=100) from 146.2. The Expectations Index—based on ...

• The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI fell -0.1 points to 44.0 in October from 44.1 in September. It remains below the 48.7 level seen in August but broadly in line with the 2023 average of 44.2.
• Production was the largest downside driver, while supplier deliveries and order backlogs also contributed. New orders and ...

&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for August 2023 show that 13 of the 20 major metro markets reported month-over-month price increases.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR ...

Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 1.1 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in September 2023, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries increased 1.2 percent and benefit costs increased 0.9 percent from ...

According to the Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch, job growth across the U.S. remains moderate but is growing at a slower rate than a year ago. Meanwhile, growth in hourly and weekly earnings decelerated in October, consistent with recent trends. Hourly earnings growth is below four percent (3.56%) for the ...

Growth in Texas factory activity continued in October, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, posted a second positive reading after four months in negative territory. It edged down to 5.2, a reading that signals a modest pace ...

Consumer sentiment fell back about 6% this October after inching down slightly for two consecutive months, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

One-year expected business conditions plunged 16% and expectations over consumers’ own personal finances in the year ahead fell 8%, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation and, to a lesser degree, uncertainty over the implications of negative news both domestically and ...

Personal income increased $77.8 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in September, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (table 2 and table 3). Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $56.1 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures ...

Tenth District manufacturing activity continued to decline in October, and expectations for future activity stayed mostly flat. District firms’ finished product prices stayed steady this month, and the raw materials prices declined slightly for the first time since 2020. Going forward, firms expect both finished product and raw materials prices ...

Pending home sales augmented 1.1% in September, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Northeast, Midwest and South posted monthly gains in transactions while the West experienced a loss. All four U.S. regions had year-over-year declines in transactions.

"Despite the slight gain, pending contracts remain at historically low levels due to the highest mortgage rates in 20 years," said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. "Furthermore, inventory remains tight, which hinders sales but keeps home prices elevated." ...

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.9 percent in the third quarter of 2023 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.1 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject ...

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in September, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, increased $13.2 billion or 4.7 percent to $297.2 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 0.1 percent August decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.5 percent. Excluding defense, new ...

In the week ending October 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 210,000, an increase of
10,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 198,000 to
200,000. The 4-week moving average was 207,500, an increase of 1,250 from the previous week's revised ...

New Home Sales
Sales of new single‐family houses in September 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 759,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 12.3 percent (±16.6 percent)* above the revised August rate of 676,000 and is 33.9 ...

Mortgage applications decreased 1.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 20, 2023.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 2 ...

Fifth District manufacturing activity changed little in October, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index edged down from 5 in September to 3 in October. Of its three component indexes, shipments edged up from 7 to 9, new orders fell from 3 to −4, and employment remained at ...

Nonmanufacturing activity in the region remained weak overall, according to the firms responding to the October Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's current indicators for general activity at the firm level and for sales/revenues edged up but remained negative. Meanwhile, the index for new orders fell further into ...

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.02 in September from –0.22 in August. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from August, and two categories made positive contributions in September. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved up to a neutral value in ...

Existing-home sales faded in September, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Among the four major U.S. regions, sales rose in the Northeast but receded in the Midwest, South and West. All four regions registered year-over-year sales declines.

Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – waned 2.0% from August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.96 million in September. Year-over-year, sales dropped 15.4% (down from 4.68 million in ...

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.7 percent in September 2023 to 104.6 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.5 percent in August. The LEI is down 3.4 percent over the six-month period between March and September 2023, an improvement from its 4.6 percent contraction over the previous six months ...

Manufacturing activity in the region was mixed this month, according to the firms responding to the October Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's indicator for general activity remained negative, while the indicators for new orders and shipments were positive but low. The employment index turned positive, and both price ...

In the week ending October 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 198,000, a decrease of
13,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 209,000 to
211,000. The 4-week moving average was 205,750, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised ...

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for August 2023. The sum total in August of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC inflow of $134.4 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $140.9 billion, and ...

Overall Economic Activity
Most Districts indicated little to no change in economic activity since the September report. Consumer spending was mixed, especially among general retailers and auto dealers, due to differences in prices and product offerings. Tourism activity continued to improve, although some Districts reported slight slowing ...

Building Permits
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,473,000. This is 4.4 percent below the revised August rate of 1,541,000 and is 7.2 percent below the September 2022 rate of 1,588,000. Single‐family authorizations in September were at a rate of 965,000; this ...

Mortgage applications decreased 6.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 13, 2023.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 6.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 7 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 10 ...

Stubbornly high mortgage rates that have climbed to a 23-year high and have remained above 7% for the past two months continue to take a heavy toll on builder confidence, as sentiment levels have dropped to the lowest point since January 2023.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes in October fell four points to 40 from a downwardly revised September reading, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. This is ...

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for August, adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,857.2 billion, up 1.3 percent (±0.2 percent) from July 2023 and was up 0.2 percent (±0.3 percent)* from ...

Industrial production increased 0.3 percent in September and advanced at an annual rate of 2.5 percent in the third quarter. Manufacturing output rose 0.4 percent in September, the index for mining moved up 0.4 percent, and the index for utilities decreased 0.3 percent. At 103.6 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in ...

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $704.9 billion, up 0.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and up 3.8 percent (±0.7 percent) above September 2022. Total sales for the July 2023 ...

Business activity edged lower in New York State, according to firms responding to the October 2023 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell seven points to -4.6. New orders fell slightly, while shipments were little changed. Unfilled orders declined, and delivery times shortened. Inventories ...

Consumer sentiment fell back about 7% this October following two consecutive months of very little change. Assessments of personal finances declined about 15%, primarily on a substantial increase in concerns over inflation, and one-year expected business conditions plunged about 19%. However, long-run expected business conditions are ...

Prices for U.S. imports ticked up 0.1 percent in September following a 0.6-percent advance the previous month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Higher fuel prices drove the September increase. U.S. export prices rose 0.7 percent in September, after advancing 1.1 percent ...

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.6 percent in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.7 percent before ...

All employees

Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.2 percent from August to September, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.2 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of ...

In the week ending October 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 209,000, unchanged from the
previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 207,000 to 209,000. The 4-week
moving average was 206,250, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's revised average. The ...

The Conference Board−Lightcast Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Index fell in September to 155.4 (July 2018=100), down from an upwardly revised 161.8 in August. The 4.0 percent decrease between September and August follows a 7.7 percent increase between August and September. Overall, the Index is down 6.2 percent from one ...

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.5 percent in September, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.7 percent in August and 0.6 percent in July. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand advanced 2.2 percent for the 12 months ended in ...

Mortgage applications increased 0.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 6, 2023.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 0.3 ...

August 2023 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences but not for price changes, were $662.3 billion, up 1.8 percent (±0.5 percent) from the revised July level, but were down 1.7 percent (±0.7 percent) from the revised August 2022 level. ...

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index decreased half of a point in September to 90.8. September’s reading marks the 21st consecutive month below the 49-year average of 98. Twenty-three percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, unchanged from last month and tied with ...

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in September to 114.66, from an upwardly revised 114.16 in August. The ETI is a leading composite index for employment. When the Index increases, employment is likely to grow as well, and vice versa. Turning points in the Index indicate that a change in the trend of job gains or ...

In August, consumer credit decreased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.8 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 13.9 percent, while nonrevolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 9.8 percent.

...

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 336,000 in September, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality; government; health care; professional, scientific, and technical services; and ...

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $58.3 billion in August, down $6.4 billion from $64.7 billion in July, revised.

Exports, Imports, and Balance
August exports were $256.0 billion, $4.1 billion more than July exports. August imports were $314.3 billion, $2.3 billion less than July imports. ...

In the week ending September 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 207,000, an increase of
2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 204,000 to
205,000. The 4-week moving average was 208,750, a decrease of 2,500 from the previous week's revised ...

U.S.-based employers announced 47,457 cuts in September, down 37% from the 75,151 cuts announced in August. It is up 58% from the 29,989 announced in the same month one year prior, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.
Despite the ...

Summary
New orders for manufactured goods in August, up five of the last six months, increased $6.7 billion or 1.2 percent to $586.1 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 2.1 percent July decrease. Shipments, up four consecutive months, increased $7.7 billion or 1.3 percent to $586.0 billion. This followed a 0.7 ...

Economic activity in the services sector expanded in September for the ninth consecutive month as the Services PMI® registered 53.6 percent, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®. The sector has grown in 39 of the last 40 months, with the lone contraction in ...

Private sector employment increased by 89,000 jobs in September and annual pay was up 5.9 percent year-over-year, according to the September ADP® National Employment ReportTM produced by the ADP Research Institute ® in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (“Stanford ...