Research >> Economics
Paychex-IHS Markit Small Business Jobs Index declined to 98.77 in October 2023
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According to the Paychex | IHS Markit Small Business Employment Watch, job growth across the U.S. remains moderate but is growing at a slower rate than a year ago. Meanwhile, growth in hourly and weekly earnings decelerated in October, consistent with recent trends. Hourly earnings growth is below four percent (3.56%) for the fourth-straight month.
“Over the past year and a half, we’ve seen a stabilization of the growth of both small business jobs and wages, in line with macroeconomic trends,” said John Gibson, Paychex president and CEO. “Following a long period of wage inflation, we are seeing that trend begin to cool, as the supply and demand for workers appears to be coming back into balance.”
“The small business employment and wage trends we’re seeing at a national level can be largely attributed to changes taking place in individual industry sectors,” added Frank Fiorille, Paychex vice president of risk, compliance, and data analytics. “For instance, in Leisure and Hospitality, hourly earnings growth is declining and fell below four percent for the first time since 2021.”
In further detail, the October 2023 report shows:
- The rate of small business job growth has slowed 0.66% from a year ago to 98.77 but remains above pre-pandemic (2019) levels.
- Hourly earnings growth has decelerated in 16 of the past 17 months, declining from 5.17% in May 2022 to 3.56% in October 2023.
- One-month annualized hourly earnings fell to 2.27%, the lowest level since November 2020.
- Leisure and Hospitality hourly earnings growth slowed below four percent (3.93%) for the first time since February 2021.
- The South leads regional small business job growth for the 19th consecutive month. At 4.10%, the West tops regional hourly earnings growth for the fifth-straight month.
- At 100.66, North Carolina has led the pace of small business job growth among states for the 15th of the past 16 months. Meanwhile, Michigan and Ohio are the two weakest states for job growth in October.
- Indiana (100.11) ranks second among states for small business job growth and is the only state with positive one-month, three-month, and 12-month change rates. The Hoosier State also has the lowest hourly earnings growth rate at 2.16%.
- Houston has now been the strongest among the top U.S. metros for small business job growth for a year. In October, its index stands at 101.83, more than 1.50 points above the second-place metro (Chicago).
Posted: October 31, 2023 Tuesday 08:30 AM