The Chicago Business Barometer™, produced with MNI reversed -8.9 points to 46.9 from 55.8 in November. This unwinds most of the increase seen in last month’s reading, returning the Chicago Business Barometer™ back into contractionary territory, but still almost 3 points above the September and October readings. PRICES PAID RISES ...

Pending home sales in November were identical to those in October, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Northeast, Midwest and West posted monthly gains in transactions while the South recorded a loss. All four U.S. regions registered year-over-year declines ...

In the week ending December 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 218,000, an increase of
12,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 205,000 to
206,000. The 4-week moving average was 212,000, a decrease of 250 from the previous week's revised ...

Fifth District manufacturing activity slowed in December, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index decreased from −5 in November to −11 in December. Of its three component indexes, shipments fell from −8 to −17, new orders decreased from −5 to −14, and employment edged ...

Texas factory activity stabilized in December after contracting in November, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, pushed up nine points to 1.4, with the near-zero reading indicating little change in manufacturing output ...

S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for October 2023 show that 11of the 20 major metro markets reported month-over-month price increases.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR ...

Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.03 in November from –0.66 in October. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from October, and two categories made positive contributions in November. The index’s three-month moving ...

Nonmanufacturing activity in the region expanded this month, according to the firms responding to the December Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The indexes for general activity at the firm level and sales/revenues remained positive, while the new orders index improved but remained negative. The firms continued to report overall ...

New Home Sales
Sales of new single‐family houses in November 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 590,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 12.2 percent (±15.6 percent)* below the revised October rate of 672,000, but is 1.4 ...

Consumer sentiment soared 14% in December, reversing four consecutive months of declines and reaching its highest reading since July, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

These trends are rooted in sharp improvements in how consumers view the trajectory of inflation, said U-M economist Joanne Hsu, director of the Surveys of Consumers. ...

Personal income increased $81.6 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in November, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 2 and 3). Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $71.9 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) ...

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in November, up two of the last three months, increased $15.1 billion or 5.4 percent to $295.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 5.1 percent October decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.5 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased ...

Tenth District manufacturing activity was flat in December, and expectations for future activity picked up. Price increases for both raw materials and finished products picked up slightly this month with further increases expected. However, price growth eased year-over-year. Increases in raw materials prices continue to outpace finished ...

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.5 percent in November 2023 to 103.0 (2016=100), following a (downwardly revised) decline of 1.0 percent in October. The LEI contracted by 3.5 percent over the six-month period between May and November 2023, a smaller decrease than its 4.3 percent contraction over ...

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.9 percent in the third quarter of 2023 (table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.1 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 5.2 percent. The update primarily reflected a downward revision to consumer spending. ...

Manufacturing activity in the region continued to decline overall, according to the firms responding to the December Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's indicators for general activity and shipments remained negative. Furthermore, the index for new orders declined sharply and turned negative. The employment index dipped ...

n the week ending December 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 205,000, an increase of
2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 202,000 to
203,000. The 4-week moving average was 212,000, a decrease of 1,500 from the previous week's revised ...

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in December to 110.7 (1985=100), up from a downwardly revised 101.0 in November. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—rose to 148.5 (1985=100) from 136.5 last month. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ ...

Existing-home sales grew in November, breaking a streak of five consecutive monthly declines, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Among the four major U.S. regions, sales climbed in the Midwest and South but receded in the Northeast and West. All four regions experienced year-over-year ...

The U.S. current-account deficit, which reflects the combined balances on trade in goods and services and income flows between U.S. residents and residents of other countries, narrowed by $16.5 billion, or 7.6 percent, to $200.3 billion in the third quarter of 2023, according to statistics released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic ...

Mortgage applications decreased 1.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 15, 2023.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 2 ...

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for October 2023. The sum total in October of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC outflow of $83.8 billion. Of this, net foreign private outflows were $68.4 billion, and ...

Building Permits
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,460,000. This is 2.5 percent below the revised October rate of 1,498,000, but is 4.1 percent above the November 2022 rate of 1,402,000. Single‐family authorizations in November were at a rate of 976,000; this ...

Falling mortgage rates helped end a four-month decline in builder confidence, and recent economic data signal improving housing conditions heading into 2024.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes rose three points to 37 in December, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. ...

Business activity declined in New York State, according to firms responding to the December 2023 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell twenty-four points to -14.5, continuing to oscillate around -8.6—the average observed over the past year. New orders fell for a third consecutive month, ...

In November, industrial production increased 0.2 percent, and manufacturing output rose 0.3 percent. The increase in manufacturing output was more than accounted for by a 7.1 percent bounceback in motor vehicles and parts production following the resolution of strikes at several major automakers. The index for manufacturing excluding ...

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for October, adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences but not for price changes, was estimated at $1,856.2 billion, down 1.0 percent (±0.2 percent) from September 2023 and was down 0.2 percent (±0.3 percent)* from ...

Prices for U.S. imports decreased 0.4 percent in November following a 0.6-percent decline the previous month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Lower fuel prices in November more than offset an increase in nonfuel prices. U.S. export prices fell 0.9 percent for the second consecutive month ...

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November 2023, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $705.7 billion, up 0.3 percent (±0.5 percent)* from the previous month, and up 4.1 percent (±0.7 percent) above November 2022. Total sales for the September ...

n the week ending December 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 202,000, a decrease of
19,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 220,000 to
221,000. The 4-week moving average was 213,250, a decrease of 7,750 from the previous week's revised ...

Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity has slowed from its strong pace in the third quarter. Job gains have moderated since earlier in the year but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but ...

The Conference Board−Lightcast Help Wanted OnLine® (HWOL) Index increased in November to 152.6 (July 2018=100), up from a downwardly revised 147.0 in October. The 3.8 percent increase between November and October follows a 6.6 percent decline between September and October. Overall, the Index is down 6.9 percent from one ...

The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices decreased 0.4 percent in October and rose 0.4 percent in September. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand increased 0.9 percent for the 12 months ended in November. ...

Mortgage applications increased 7.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 8, 2023.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 7.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 6 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 19 ...

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, after being unchanged in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.1 percent before ...

All employees

Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.2 percent from October to November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.4 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of ...

NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index decreased 0.1 point in November to 90.6, which marks the 23rd consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98. Twenty-two percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, unchanged from October but 10 points lower than this time ...

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) decreased in November to 113.05, from a downwardly revised 113.09 in October. The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for employment. When the Index increases, employment is likely to grow as well, and vice versa. Turning points in the Index indicate that a change in the trend ...

Consumer sentiment soared 13% in December, erasing all declines from the previous four months, primarily on the basis of improvements in the expected trajectory of inflation. Sentiment is now about 39% above the all-time low measured in June of 2022 but still well below pre-pandemic levels. All five index components rose this month, led by ...

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 199,000 in November, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care and government. Employment also increased in manufacturing, reflecting the return of workers from a strike. Employment in retail ...

In October, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.2 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.7 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 0.7 percent.

...

October 2023 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences but not for price changes, were $667.9 billion, down 1.3 percent (±0.5 percent) from the revised September level and were down 0.4 percent (±0.7 percent)* from the revised October ...

In the week ending December 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 220,000, an increase of
1,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 218,000 to
219,000. The 4-week moving average was 220,750, an increase of 500 from the previous week's revised ...

U.S.-based employers announced 45,510 cuts in November, a 24% increase from the 36,836 cuts announced one month prior. It is 41% lower than the 76,835 cuts announced in the same month in 2022, and marks the first time cuts were lower than the corresponding month a year ago since July, according to a report released Thursday from ...

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $64.3 billion in October, up $3.1 billion from $61.2 billion in September, revised.

Exports, Imports, and Balance
October exports were $258.8 billion, $2.6 billion less than September exports. October imports were $323.0 billion, $0.5 billion more than September imports.
The October increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the ...

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 5.2 percent in the third quarter of 2023, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 6.1 percent and hours worked increased 0.9 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.) The increase in labor productivity is ...

Private sector employment increased by 103,000 jobs in November and annual pay was up 5.6 percent year-over-year, according to the November ADP® National Employment ReportTM produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (“Stanford ...

Mortgage applications increased 2.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 1, 2023. Last week’s results include an adjustment for the observance of the ...

The number of job openings decreased to 8.7 million on the last business day of October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, the number of hires and total separations changed little at 5.9 million and 5.6 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.6 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.6 million) ...

Economic activity in the services sector expanded in November for the 11th consecutive month as the Services PMI® registered 52.7 percent, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®. The sector has grown in 41 of the last 42 months, with the lone contraction in ...