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Chicago Fed National Activity Index Suggests economic growth increased in November 2023
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Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.03 in November from –0.66 in October. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from October, and two categories made positive contributions in November. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved up to –0.20 in November from –0.26 in October.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, increased to –0.21 in November from –0.35 in October. Forty-three of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in November, while 41 made negative contributions and one made a neutral contribution. Sixty-two indicators improved from October to November, while 21 indicators deteriorated and two were unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 23 made negative contributions.
Production-related indicators made a neutral contribution to the CFNAI in November, up from –0.37 in October. Industrial production increased 0.2 percent in November after decreasing 0.9 percent in the previous month. The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI moved up to –0.03 in November from –0.11 in October.
Employment-related indicators contributed +0.03 to the CFNAI in November, up from –0.15 in October. The unemployment rate decreased to 3.7 percent in November from 3.9 percent in the previous month. The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI moved up to +0.04 in November from –0.03 in October.
The CFNAI was constructed using data available as of December 21, 2023. At that time, November data for 51 of the 85 indicators had been published. For all missing data, estimates were used in constructing the index. The October monthly index value was revised to –0.66 from an initial estimate of –0.49, and the September monthly index value was revised to +0.02 from last month’s estimate of –0.02. Revisions to the monthly index can be attributed to two main factors: revisions in previously published data and differences between the estimates of previously unavailable data and subsequently published data. The revisions to both the October and September monthly index values were primarily due to the latter.
Posted: December 26, 2023 Tuesday 08:30 AM