Research >> Economics
DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer edged up 0.1%
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For the week ending January 28, 2012, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer edged up +0.1 percent, following a drop of -0.6 percent in the prior week. Inflation-adjusted chain store sales increased slightly +0.1 percent, after a decline of -1.3 percent in the prior week, while railroad freight carloadings rebounded solidly. As for the production side, an increase in auto, truck and lumber production more than offset a decline in electric output amid unseasonably mild weather in the latest week. Looking at January on the whole, economic activity declined by -1.0 percent compared to December 2011 reflecting the correction in motor vehicle production and the slower growth of chain store sales. But we already know that chain store sales jumped in the week ending February 7th, which will help improve next week’s barometer reading.
On a year-over-year basis, the barometer grew +0.8 percent for five consecutive weeks, which compares to an average -3.3 percent decline over the Great Recession (determined to have ended in June 2009 according to the NBER). After flatlining in 2006, and declining from 2007 through 2009, the barometer bounced back in 2010 to rise by +3.4 percent, which was the strongest increase since 1994 (+4.0%), but not so impressive when you compare it to an -8.0 percent drop in 2009.
The smoothed version of the barometer, which attempts to account for weekly volatility, fell -0.1 percent in the week ending January 28th, extending its decrease for five weeks, while its year-over-year growth rate was +1.0 percent.
Posted: February 9, 2012 Thursday 10:00 AM