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DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer declined by 1.0%
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For the week ending January 8, 2011, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer declined sharply by -1.0 percent. The barometer was overpowered in the latest week by a huge decline in inflation-adjusted chain store sales. According to ICSC, the chain store sales index tumbled in the week ending the 8th, “possibly exaggerated by the seasonal adjustment for a low volume week.” ICSC further noted that although the weekly data had fallen, the year-over-year growth in sales was still strong. Inflation-adjusted chain store sales receive a hefty weighting when compiling the barometer so wide swings can greatly affect the barometer’s results. Elsewhere, production disruptions due to the unusual snowstorms in the South may be behind the decline in weekly production numbers.
Despite the decline in the barometer, on a year-over-year basis, the barometer accelerated to +5.3 percent in the week ending January 8, 2011, which compares to an average -3.3 percent decline over the Great Recession (determined to have ended in June 2009 according to the NBER). After flat lining in 2006, and declining from 2007 through 2009, the barometer bounced back in 2010 to rise by +3.4 percent, which was the strongest increase since 1994 (+4.0%), but not so impressive when you compare it to an -8.0 percent drop in 2009.
Posted: January 20, 2011 Thursday 10:00 AM