Research >> Economics
Forecasters Hold the Line on Their Estimates for Growth
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The outlook for the U.S. economy is little changed from the survey of three months ago, according to 39 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters expect real GDP to grow at an annual rate of 1.8 percent this quarter, down from the previous estimate of 2.2 percent. Over the next three quarters, they expect GDP growth to average 2.1 percent, down from the previous average of 2.2 percent. On an annual-average over annual-average basis, the forecasters see real GDP growing 2.2 percent in 2012, unchanged from their prediction in the survey of three months ago. The forecasters predict real GDP will grow 2.0 percent in 2013, 2.7 percent in 2014, and 2.9 percent in 2015.
The estimates for unemployment also changed little from the projections in the last survey. Unemployment is projected to be an annual average of 8.1 percent in 2012, before falling to 7.8 percent in 2013, 7.4 percent in 2014, and 6.9 percent in 2015. The projections are similar to those of the previous survey.
On the employment front, the forecasters have made small revisions to their estimates of the growth in jobs over the next four quarters. The forecasters see nonfarm payroll employment growing at a rate of 148,700 jobs per month this quarter and 127,400 jobs per month next quarter. The forecasters’ projections for the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment are almost identical to those of three months ago. The projections suggest job gains at a monthly rate of 155,600 in 2012 and 143,300 in 2013, as the table below shows.
Posted: November 9, 2012 Friday 10:00 AM