Research >> Economics
DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer rose 0.9%
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For the week ending March 31, 2012, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer rose +0.9 percent after a decline of -0.2 percent in the prior week. Inflation-adjusted chain store sales surged by +3.8 percent, likely helped by unseasonably warm weather and early Easter Sunday which fell on April 8th this year compared to April 24th 2011. MBA’s mortgage applications and railroad freight carloadings also increased, and a bounce back in the consumption sector was responsible for all of the increase in the barometer in the latest week.
On a year-over-year basis, the barometer grew +1.6 percent, which compares to an average -3.3 percent decline over the Great Recession (determined to have ended in June 2009 according to the NBER). After flatlining in 2006, and declining from 2007 through 2009, the barometer bounced back in 2010 to rise by +3.4 percent, which was the strongest increase since 1994 (+4.0%), but not so impressive when you compare it to an -8.0 percent drop in 2009.
The smoothed version of the barometer, which attempts to account for weekly volatility, increased by +0.1 percent in the week ending March 31st, while its year-over-year growth rate increased +1.2 percent for three consecutive weeks.
Posted: April 12, 2012 Thursday 10:00 AM