Research >> Economics
Forecasters See the Expansion Continuing
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The U.S. economy will grow over each of the next five quarters, according to 41 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters see real GDP growing at an annual rate of 2.7 percent this quarter. On an annual-average over annual-average basis, forecasters see real GDP falling 2.5 percent in 2009 before rebounding in each of the following three years. Real GDP will grow 2.4 percent in 2010, 3.1 percent in 2011, and 3.3 percent in 2012. As the table below shows, these estimates are a bit higher than those the forecasters projected in last quarter's survey.
The labor market looks weaker now than it did three months ago. Unemployment is now seen at an annual average of 9.3 percent in 2009 and 10 percent in 2010, before falling to 9.2 percent in 2011 and 8.3 percent in 2012. These estimates mark upward revisions from the forecasters' previous projection. Likewise, growth in jobs looks weaker. The forecasters see nonfarm payroll employment falling at a rate of 160,000 jobs per month this quarter and 35,000 jobs per month next quarter. Both estimates mark downward revisions from the previous survey. The forecasters see jobs beginning to grow in the second quarter of 2010. Over the second half of the year, jobs will grow at a rate of 150,000 per month. The forecasters' projections for the annual average level of nonfarm payroll employment suggest job losses at a monthly rate of 427,000 in 2009 and a further loss of 70,000 per month in 2010. (These annual-average estimates are computed as the year-to-year change in the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment, converted to a monthly rate.)
Posted: November 16, 2009 Monday 10:00 AM