Research >> Economics
Chicago Fed National Activity Index decreased further
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The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was –3.26 in December, down from –2.78 in November. All four broad categories of indicators made negative contributions to the index in December.
The three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased slightly to –2.40 in December from –2.56 in the previous month. With recent revisions, the three-month moving average reached its lowest value since 1980 in November. December’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was well below its historical trend. It also indicates little inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.
The production and income category of indicators made a large negative contribution of –1.32 to the index in December, following a contribution of –1.06 in November. Total industrial production declined 2.0 percent in December after decreasing 1.3 percent in the previous month. In addition, manufacturing capacity utilization declined to its lowest level since 1983—at 70.2 percent in December from 71.9 percent in November.
Posted: January 26, 2009 Monday 08:30 AM