Research >> Economics
DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer jumped by 1.4%
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For the week ending February 25, 2012, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer jumped +1.4 percent on top of an increase of +0.6 percent in the prior week. Inflation-adjusted chain store sales decreased by -1.0 percent after leaping +2.9 percent in the prior week. However a surge in motor vehicle production more than offset the decline in chain store sales, lifting the business barometer index by approximately +1.3 percentage points. A bounce back in MBA’s mortgage applications index also helped push the overall index to its highest level since the week ending December 17, 2011 when the index registered 97.2.
On a year-over-year basis, the barometer grew +0.7 percent for nine consecutive weeks, which compares to an average -3.3 percent decline over the Great Recession (determined to have ended in June 2009 according to the NBER). After flatlining in 2006, and declining from 2007 through 2009, the barometer bounced back in 2010 to rise by +3.4 percent, which was the strongest increase since 1994 (+4.0%), but not so impressive when you compare it to an -8.0 percent drop in 2009.
The smoothed version of the barometer, which attempts to account for weekly volatility, increased by +0.3 percent in the week ending February 25th on top of an upward-revised increase of +0.3 percent in the prior week(originally reported as 0.0 percent), while its year-over-year growth rate remained +1.0 percent for nine weeks.
Posted: March 8, 2012 Thursday 10:00 AM