Business activity increased in New York State for the first time in five months, according to firms responding to the April 2023 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index shot up thirty-five points to 10.8. New orders and shipments surged. Delivery times held steady, and inventories moved higher. Despite the increase in activity, both employment and hours worked declined for a third consecutive month. Input price increases moderated, while selling prices increased at the same pace as last month. Looking ahead, businesses continued to expect little improvement in conditions over the next six months.

Activity Perks Up

Manufacturing activity grew in New York State for the first time in several months, according to the April survey. The general business conditions index climbed thirty-five points to 10.8, pointing to a modest increase in activity. Thirty-five percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, and twenty-four percent reported that conditions had worsened. The new orders index rose a whopping forty-seven points to 25.1, and the shipments index climbed thirty-seven points to 23.9, indicating that both orders and shipments increased substantially after declining in recent months. The unfilled orders index rose to 0, a sign that unfilled orders were unchanged. The delivery times index also came in at 0, indicating that delivery times held steady. The inventories index moved up ten points to 8.2, suggesting that inventories grew modestly.

Labor Market Indicators Remain Weak

The index for number of employees remained negative for a third consecutive month at -8.0, and the average workweek index held below zero at -6.4, indicating that employment and hours worked shrank. The prices paid index fell nine points to 33.0, indicating that input price increases moderated. The prices received index held steady at 23.7, suggesting the pace of selling price increases was little changed.

Firms Not Very Optimistic

The index for future business conditions edged up to 6.6, suggesting that firms do not expect activity to improve much over the next six months. New orders and shipments are expected to increase modestly, and employment is expected to grow. The capital spending index rose three points to 16.5, and the technology spending index came in at 10.3.