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Chicago Fed National Activity Growth Decreased Slightly in November
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The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, edged up to –0.14 in November from –0.20 in October. November’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was slightly below its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, moved up to –0.15 in November from –0.23 in October. Thirty-one of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in November, while 54 made negative contributions. Forty-one indicators improved from October to November, while forty-four indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, 17 made negative contributions.
The contribution from production-related indicators to the CFNAI decreased to –0.20 in November from –0.01 in October. Total industrial production declined 0.4 percent in November after increasing 0.1 percent in October.
The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI decreased to –0.10 in November from –0.03 in October. Housing starts fell to 1,090,000 annualized units in November from 1,340,000 in October, and housing permits decreased to 1,201,000 annualized units in November from 1,260,000 in the previous month.
Employment-related indicators contributed +0.02 to the CFNAI in November, up slightly from +0.01 in October. The civilian unemployment rate fell to 4.6 percent in November from 4.9 percent in October, and civilian nonagricultural employment increased by 135,000 in November after increasing by 77,000 in the previous month. The sales, orders, and inventories category made a contribution of +0.01 to the CFNAI in November, up from –0.02 in October.
The CFNAI was constructed using data available as of December 16, 2016. At that time, November data for 49 of the 85 indicators had been published. For all missing data, estimates were used in constructing the index. The October monthly index value was revised to –0.05 from an initial estimate of –0.08, and the September monthly index value was revised to –0.11 from last month’s estimate of –0.23. Revisions to the monthly index value can be attributed to two main factors: revisions in previously published data and differences between the estimates of previously unavailable data and subsequently published data. The revision to the October monthly index value was primarily due to the former, while the revision to the September monthly index value was primarily due to the latter.
Posted: December 22, 2016 Thursday 08:30 AM