Research >> Economics
Chicago Fed National Activity growth picked up in September
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The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, edged down to –0.21 in September from –0.14 in August. September’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was somewhat below its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, moved down to –0.12 in September from –0.03 in August. Forty-one of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in September, while 44 made negative contributions. Sixty-seven indicators improved from August to September, while 17 indicators deteriorated and one was unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 29 made negative contributions.
The contribution from production-related indicators to the CFNAI rose to –0.01 in September from –0.39 in August. Manufacturing industrial production increased 0.2 percent in September after decreasing 0.5 percent in August; and manufacturing capacity utilization ticked up to 74.9 percent in September from 74.8 percent in the previous month. The sales, orders, and inventories category also made a contribution of –0.01 to the CFNAI in September, up from –0.06 in August.
Employment-related indicators contributed –0.03 to the CFNAI in September, up from –0.15 in August. Civilian nonagricultural employment increased by 442,000 in September after decreasing by 37,000 in August; but the civilian unemployment rate ticked up to 5.0 percent in September from 4.9 percent in the previous month.
The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI edged up to –0.09 in September from –0.12 in August. Housing permits increased to 1,225,000 annualized units in September from 1,152,000 in August. However, housing starts decreased to 1,047,000 annualized units in September from 1,150,000 in the previous month.
The CFNAI was constructed using data available as of October 20, 2016. At that time, September data for 51 of the 85 indicators had been published. For all missing data, estimates were used in constructing the index. The August monthly index value was revised to –0.72 from an initial estimate of –0.55, and the July monthly index value was revised to +0.23 from last month’s estimate of +0.24. Revisions to the monthly index value can be attributed to two main factors: revisions in previously published data and differences between the estimates of previously unavailable data and subsequently published data. The revision to the August monthly index value was primarily due to the latter, while the revision to the July monthly index value was primarily due to the former.
Posted: October 24, 2016 Monday 08:30 AM