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Chicago Fed National Activity Index Index suggests economic growth decreased in December 2023
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The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.15 in December from +0.01 in November. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from November, and three categories made negative contributions in December. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved down to –0.28 in December from –0.24 in November.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, edged down to –0.32 in December from –0.28 in November.
Thirty-seven of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in December, while 48 made negative contributions. Forty indicators improved from November to December, while 45 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, 18 made negative contributions.
Production-related indicators contributed –0.06 to the CFNAI in December, down slightly from –0.04 in November. Manufacturing production increased 0.1 percent in December after rising 0.2 percent in the previous month. The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI moved down to –0.04 in December from +0.04 in November.
Employment-related indicators contributed –0.06 to the CFNAI in December, down from –0.02 in November. The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI ticked down to +0.01 in December from +0.03 in November.
The CFNAI was constructed using data available as of January 23, 2024. At that time, December data for 51 of the 85 indicators had been published. For all missing data, estimates were used in constructing the index. The November monthly index value was revised to +0.01 from an initial estimate of +0.03, and the October monthly index value was revised to –0.68 from last month’s estimate of –0.66. Revisions to the monthly index can be attributed to two main factors: revisions in previously published data and differences between the estimates of previously unavailable data and subsequently published data. The revision to the November monthly index value was primarily due to the former, while the revision to the October monthly index value was primarily due to the latter.
Posted: January 25, 2024 Thursday 08:30 AM