Research >> Economics
DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer remained at the same level
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For the week ending January 19, 2013, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer remained at the same level as last week. Truck and Lumber Production were flat or increased slightly and the pickup this week appeared to be somewhat weak following the significant decreases in these Production in the previous week. Auto Production bounced back this week, which had been falling three weeks in a row. On the demand side, Chain Store Sales continued to decline for three consecutive weeks, which seems to have been affected from the tax-hike starting this year while MBA’s purchase index, although the degree of increase shrunk, remained on the upward trend.
On a year-over-year basis, the barometer showed increase of 1.5 percent, which compares to an average -3.3 percent decline over the Great Recession (determined to have ended in June 2009 according to the NBER). After flatlining in 2006, and declining from 2007 through 2009, the barometer bounced back in 2010 to rise by 3.4 percent, which was the strongest increase since 1994 (+4.0 percent), but not so impressive when compared to an -8.0 percent drop in 2009. The rate of increase for the 2012 slightly slowed to 1.4 percent following 2.2 percent in 2011.
The smoothed version of the barometer, which attempts to account for weekly volatility, declined 0.2 percent for four consecutive weeks. Its year-over-year growth rate was 1.4 percent.
Posted: January 31, 2013 Thursday 10:00 AM