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MUFG U.S. Business Barometer remained flat%
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For the week ending April 30 2016, the MUFG U.S. Business Barometer remained flat at 98.0, as gains in some indexes were cancelled out by losses in others. Chain store sales, for example, declined by 1.0 percent after rising for three consecutive weeks. Likewise, auto and coal production dropped by 2.7 and 7.1 percent, respectively. On the other hand, electric output and railroad freight car loadings rose by 2.3 and 1.0 percent, respectively. Lumber and steel production also reported minor gains.
On a year-over-year basis, the barometer declined by 0.8 percent, which compares to an average -3.3 percent decline over the Great Recession (ended in June 2009 according to the NBER). After flat lining in 2006, and declining from 2007 through 2009, the barometer bounced back in 2010 to rise by 3.4 percent, which was the strongest increase since 1994 (+4.0 percent), but not so impressive when compared to an -8.0 percent drop in 2009. The rate of increase for the 2013 slowed to 0.7 percent following 1.5 percent in 2012.
The smoothed version of the barometer, which attempts to account for weekly volatility, remained flat at 98.0. Its year-over-year growth rate was -0.7 percent.
Posted: May 12, 2016 Thursday 10:00 AM