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Forecasters Outlook for Steady Growth with Healthier Labor Market
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Steady Outlook for Growth with Healthier Labor Market
The outlook for growth in the U.S. economy is little changed from the survey of three months ago, according to 42 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters expect real GDP to grow at an annual rate of 1.8 percent this quarter and 2.5 percent next quarter and to rise to 2.9 percent in the second quarter of 2014. On an annual-average over annual-average basis, the forecasters see real GDP growing 1.7 percent in 2013, 2.6 percent in 2014, 2.8 percent in 2015, and 2.7 percent in 2016. These projections are nearly the same as those of three months ago.
The projections for unemployment over the next three years are slightly below those of the last survey. Unemployment is projected to be an annual average of 7.5 percent in 2013, before falling to 7.0 percent in 2014, 6.4 percent in 2015, and 6.0 percent in 2016.
On the employment front, the forecasters see higher growth in jobs over the next four quarters. The forecasters see nonfarm payroll employment growing at a rate of 187,300 jobs per month this quarter and 187,000 jobs per month next quarter. The forecasters’ projections for job gains on a monthly basis are 181,900 in 2013 and 189,900 in 2014, as the table below shows. (These annual-average estimates are computed as the year-to-year change in the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment, converted to a monthly rate.)
Posted: November 25, 2013 Monday 10:00 AM