Research >> Economics
DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer Declined by 1.0%
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For the week ending December 29, 2012, the DJ-BTMU U.S. Business Barometer dropped by 1.0 percent following a flat reading in the previous week. Despite the continued growth in Chain Store Sales, many of the data both on demand and production side, such as Railroad Freight Carloadings and Steel Production, showed weakness for the week. While seasonal adjustment factor tends to be volatile during the year end, attention to coming data will be required considering the tax increase set to start from January.
On a year-over-year basis, the barometer showed increase of 0.6 percent, which compares to an average -3.3 percent decline over the Great Recession (determined to have ended in June 2009 according to the NBER). After flatlining in 2006, and declining from 2007 through 2009, the barometer bounced back in 2010 to rise by 3.4 percent, which was the strongest increase since 1994 (+4.0 percent), but not so impressive when compared to an -8.0 percent drop in 2009. The barometer increased by 2.2 percent in 2011 at a somewhat slower pace compared to 2010.
The smoothed version of the barometer, which attempts to account for weekly volatility, was flat for the week. Its year-over-year growth rate edged up to 1.3 percent.
Posted: January 10, 2013 Thursday 10:00 AM