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Chicago Fed National Activity Index Suggests little change in economic growth in June 2023
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The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) edged down to –0.32 in June from –0.28 in May. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from May, and three of the four categories made negative contributions in June. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to –0.16 in June from –0.21 in May.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, moved up to –0.12 in June from –0.17 in May. Thirty-one of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in June, while 54 made negative contributions. Thirty-three indicators improved from May to June, while 51 indicators deteriorated and one was unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 13 made negative contributions.
Production-related indicators contributed –0.27 to the CFNAI in June, down from –0.20 in May. Manufacturing production decreased 0.3 percent in June after moving down 0.2 percent in the previous month. The contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the CFNAI edged down to –0.05 in June from –0.01 in May.
Employment-related indicators contributed +0.03 to the CFNAI inJune, up from –0.06 in May. The unemployment rate
decreased to 3.6 percent in June from 3.7 percent in the previous month. The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI decreased to –0.02 in June from –0.01 in May.
The CFNAI was constructed using data available as of July 20, 2023. At that time, June data for 51 of the 85 indicators had been published. For all missing data, estimates were used in constructing the index. The May monthly index value was revised to –0.28 from an initial estimate of –0.15, and the April monthly index value was revised to +0.13 from last month’s estimate of +0.14. Revisions to the monthly index can be attributed to two main factors: revisions in previously published data and differences between the estimates of previously unavailable data and subsequently published data. The revision to the May monthly index value was primarily due to the former, while the revision to the April monthly index value was primarily due to the latter.
Posted: July 24, 2023 Monday 08:30 AM