Research >> Economics
Forecasters Predict Weaker Outlook for Growth, but Stronger Outlook for Employment
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The economy looks slightly weaker now than it did three months ago, according to 42 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters predict real GDP will grow at an annual rate of 2.1 percent this quarter and 2.4 percent next quarter. On an annual-average over annual-average basis, real GDP will grow 1.7 percent in 2016, down 0.4 percentage point from the previous estimate of 2.1 percent. For 2017, real GDP is estimated to grow 2.4 percent, unchanged from the previous survey. The forecasters predict real GDP will grow 2.4 percent in 2018 and 2.2 percent in 2019, down 0.3 percentage point and 0.1 percentage point, respectively, from the previous survey’s estimates.
The outlook for unemployment remains mostly unchanged from the previous survey. The forecasters predict that the unemployment rate will average 4.8 percent in 2016, before falling to 4.6 percent in 2017, 2018, and 2019.
The forecasters see some improvement on the employment front. They have revised their estimates upward for job gains in 2016 and 2017. The forecasters see nonfarm payroll employment growing at a rate of 189,800 jobs per month this quarter, 191,800 jobs per month next quarter, 176,000 jobs per month in the fourth quarter of 2016, 181,600 jobs per month in the first quarter of 2017, and 166,500 jobs per month in the second quarter of 2017. The forecasters’ projections for the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment suggest job gains at a monthly rate of 212,400 in 2016 and 178,400 in 2017, as the table below shows. (These annual-average estimates are computed as the year-to-year change in the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment, converted to a monthly rate.)
Posted: May 13, 2016 Friday 10:00 AM