Research >> Economics
Chicago Fed National Activity picked up in April
|
The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.22 in April from –0.18 in March. April’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was somewhat below its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.
The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, increased to –0.17 in April from –0.22 in March. Forty-five of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in April, while 40 made negative contributions. Fifty-four indicators improved from March to April, while 31 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, 16 made negative contributions.
The contribution from production-related indicators to the CFNAI rose to +0.19 in April from –0.39 in March. Industrial production increased by 0.7 percent in April after declining by 0.9 percent in March. The sales, orders, and inventories category made a neutral contribution to the CFNAI in April, up slightly from –0.01 in March.
The contribution from employment-related indicators to the CFNAI ticked up to –0.02 in April from –0.04 in March. The civilian unemployment rate was steady at 5.0 percent in April after ticking up in March. However, nonfarm payrolls increased by 160,000 in April after rising by 208,000 in the previous month.
The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the CFNAI edged up to –0.07 in April from –0.11 in March. Housing starts increased to 1,172,000 annualized units in April from 1,099,000 in March, and housing permits moved up to 1,116,000 annualized units in April from 1,077,000 in the previous month.
The CFNAI was constructed using data available as of May 17, 2016. At that time, April data for 50 of the 85 indicators had been published. For all missing data, estimates were used in constructing the index. The March monthly index value was revised to –0.55 from an initial estimate of –0.44, and the February monthly index value was revised to –0.20 from last month’s estimate of –0.38. Revisions to the monthly index value can be attributed to two main factors: revisions in previously published data and differences
between the estimates of previously unavailable data and subsequently published data. The revisions to both the March and February monthly index values were due primarily to the former.
Posted: May 19, 2016 Thursday 08:30 AM