Research >> Economics
Forecasters Predict Higher Growth and Lower Unemployment
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The outlook for growth in the U.S. economy over the next three years looks stronger than that of three months ago, according to 45 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. On an annual-average over annual-average basis, the forecasters predict faster real GDP growth in 2014, 2015, and 2016. The forecasters see real GDP growing 2.8 percent in 2014, up from their prediction of 2.6 percent in the last survey. The forecasters predict real GDP will grow 3.1 percent in 2015, higher than their prediction of 2.8 percent in the last survey. For 2016, the forecast for real GDP growth, at 3.1 percent, is 0.4 percentage point higher than the last survey.
A brighter outlook for the unemployment rate accompanies the more positive outlook for growth. The forecasters predict that the unemployment rate will be an annual average of 6.5 percent in 2014, before falling to 6.1 percent in 2015, 5.7 percent in 2016, and 5.5 percent in 2017. The projections for 2014, 2015, and 2016 are below those of the last survey.
On the jobs front, the forecasters see little change in job growth in 2014. The forecasters' projections for the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment suggest job gains at a monthly rate of 187,700 in 2014 and 206,900 in 2015, as the table below shows. (These annual-average estimates are computed as the year-to-year change in the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment, converted to a monthly rate.)
Posted: February 14, 2014 Friday 10:00 AM