Research >> Economics
Forecasters Expect Continued Growth
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The U.S. economy will grow at an annual rate of 2.7 percent over each of the next five quarters, according to 42 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters see stronger growth over the next three quarters than they projected in the survey of three months ago, but some of that upward revision will come at the expense of slower growth at year's end. On an annual-average over annual-average basis, forecasters see real GDP growing 3.0 percent in 2010, up from their prediction of 2.4 percent in the last survey. The forecasters predict real GDP will grow 2.9 percent in 2011, 3.4 percent in 2012, and 3.1 percent in 2013.
The labor market in the near term looks a bit stronger now than it did three months ago. Unemployment is now projected to be an annual average of 9.8 percent in 2010, before falling to 9.2 percent in 2011, 8.3 percent in 2012, and 7.3 percent in 2013. On the jobs front, upward revisions for the growth in jobs over the next two quarters of 2010 are to be followed by downward revisions over the second half of the year. The forecasters see nonfarm payroll employment growing at a rate of 600 jobs per month this quarter and 117,600 jobs per month next quarter. Both estimates mark upward revisions from the previous survey. Over the second half of 2010, jobs will grow at an average rate of 96,000 per month. The forecasters' projections for the annual average level of nonfarm payroll employment suggest job losses at a monthly rate of 59,000 in 2010. Job gains in 2011 are seen averaging 142,000 per month.
Posted: February 12, 2010 Friday 10:00 AM