Research >> Economics
Chicago PMI Surged
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The Chicago Purchasing Managers reported the CHICAGO BUSINESS BAROMETER surged to the best reading in seven months at 40.1:
BUSINESS ACTIVITY:
PRICES PAID index decline accelerated for the 3rd consecutive month;
PRODUCTION and NEW ORDERS turned upwards;
ORDER BACKLOG index regained traction;
EMPLOYMENT situation stabilized a bit as layoffs moderated;
BUYING POLICY: lead-times were mixed.
The April Chicago Business Barometer™ recovered dramatically after the third test of the 20 year low value. If this were an average recession, it would end four months after the low point in the Barometer, suggesting an end of the recession in August 2009. A more conservative rule would draw an analogy to the 1981-82 recession, since this is not working out to be an average recession. Using that rule, the end of this re-cession would be projected to be 9 months after the lowest value of the Chicago Busi-ness Barometer. With March as our best current estimate of that minimum, the reces-sion is projected to end in December 2009.
Posted: April 30, 2009 Thursday 10:24 AM